In August, the reserve requirement that banks are required to hold was reduced, allowing banks to pump more money into the market, creating liquidity.
🔸 The US Treasury will reduce sharply before the debt ceiling: Before the US government reaches the debt ceiling, the Treasury will have to use up all its reserves.
=> This will create a large injection of money into the financial market, and often when there is a lot of money in the system, the value of assets like Bitcoin can increase sharply.
🔸 Large liquidity from China: China has been pumping liquidity, lowering interest rates, and reducing reserve requirements to save growth.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will inject 234.6 billion yuan ($33.29 billion) into the banking system through market operations
🔸 Interest rate cuts will continue 1-2 times in Q4 2024: the forecast of rising unemployment will force the US to cut interest rates to support the economy. Lowering interest rates often makes money cheaper and makes it easier for people and businesses to borrow, creating more liquidity and pushing up asset prices
In short, there will be few BUY opportunities in Q4, don't wait until you are green to ask to buy.
Before Chairman Powell spoke -> The market went ahead of the news.
In his speech, he said: The economy is still stable and will continue to cut interest rates by 25 points each time in the following months. To stimulate the economy and the labor market.
In my opinion, if the number of unemployment claims continues to increase at a higher level than expected => Like last month, the FED will cut another 50 points next month is possible.
Although cutting interest rates is good for the labor market and traditional businesses, there is a risk that the economy will decline, as well as investment in the stock market and #crypto may decrease relatively.
But I also told you guys quite a lot, the market in the correction phase is an opportunity for you to optimize and add more goods to your bag.
Influenced by the positive performance of Chinese stocks, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also recovered strongly, increasing by nearly 14% last week.
Many people are still afraid that this is a fake increase, but the belief that Chinese stocks are being priced cheaply, IPO activities in the Hong Kong market are also recovering in the third quarter.
Hong Kong stocks are considered to have bottomed out, the first growth group is stocks of leading securities companies.
=> Not only in the world #crypto , the tradfi world is also more positive. And it is very likely that we will have some stories about Eastern money flows in the near future.
Some opinions say: Enter the market to make money, regardless of technology. Every coin that increases in price is a good coin, a coin that decreases in price is a bad coin!
=> This opinion is not wrong but not enough!
💠 If you only make money, there are many places like: - Lottery tickets are also making money!
- Casinos are also making money. => But investment markets like: Forex - stocks - crypto are different. Each market has its own characteristics, has a story behind it.
💠 Market #crypto is a capital market of a technology platform. If you turn market #crypto into a gambling den, it will no longer have the core of the story behind it!
(When the stock market first appeared, there were also many opinions that it was gambling).
Look at the nature, a market associated with too many memes is a market that is inflated and applies the formula of whoever comes first eats
Devs suppress Kols, Kols suppress followers, and so on, suppressing each other because they basically run out of ideas, so they suppress memes, which is no different from saying that this is a casino and what we need to do is find hidden gems (not much different from playing dex)
Less expectations because now cex and dex have a very fragile boundary and currently cex exchanges are no longer building on reputation and brand, but what they need is profit (suppressing users to make money, since cz left, binance now only suppresses users to make liquidity over and over again)
I don't deny the hype of the meme wave, but I feel like the next wave will be a strong wave of technology coins!
There are quite a few stories being told and hinted at, if you pay close attention you will see them.
- The Etf story promotes cash flow into hst $BTC $ETH - If Hst $BTC has cash flow, BTC eco will benefit a lot - If Eth eco has cash flow, it will promote platforms L2, Restaking, L1 evm, Lsdfi,... - Big trends like AI - Rwa are all places to attract whales to participate and pour money into the market.
There are still quite a few stories revolving around, but the overall picture has been shown quite clearly, I feel like everything has been set up and just need to wait for the right time to explode.
Why do I believe that?
Because to prepare for the bull market, before that is a period of carefully building each key point and the ultimate goal is to have more participants, which means more liquidity.
Sharks always want to create games to solve group interests, so I believe the market will still explode even more strongly and cannot stop at the current level.
The #crypto market always has a very high excretion rate and can easily transfer from Trader to reluctant Holder, as well as from Holder to Trader without knowing it?
If at present, you can see that in these 6 months, if you are a Trader, you can avoid many crashes or optimize a lot of coins when you see many Altcoins going up and then falling to a deeper bottom.
Is it true that every time we sell and buy back, how many coins will we optimize? And Holders, including me, wake up every day to see their accounts decrease more, gradually erode, then see many people say they successfully sold their stocks, optimize how many coins they are impatient...
And in each of those beats, there are many people who draw BTC to continue to crash, making us want to optimize more, and then in this period, there will be many people optimizing to buy back and then gradually switch from Holder to Trader without knowing it?
On the contrary, when entering the crazy Altcoin Season wave, it is very easy to turn us from Traders to reluctant Holders. There will be many of you who are not sure about your hands and sell too early, or those who have just switched from Holder to Trader above and then see it continue to fly when you have sold,
then take all the money you have and jump into Trade for the last few times, and then get caught in a sudden crash and can't escape in time, turning into reluctant Holders in the Downtrend season, and returning all the money to the market? (For example, Oha collapsed in May 2021 or recently in mid-April 2024).
Have any of you ever been like that? Will you definitely Cash out this season when you reach your target?
Short-term liquidity is quite concentrated in the 63k and 66k areas. However, the 66k area is still close to the current price, so I still lean towards $BTC continuing to sweep short in the short term.
FC 1W shows that the buying trend is quite strong when the brown order volume (orders >$1M) is getting bigger and bigger. Purple orders have a few slight ups and downs, but overall the buying trend remains unchanged.
On the MM Wintermute side, there are not many moves to deposit money on the exchange like before. Jump trading tends to accumulate stablecoins to wallets => Memecoin is being promoted, MM's port recently continues to suck up profits of $SHIB $PEPE.
The bearish period is when MM and bookmakers are active, not the bullish market period, for example, the indexes of spot ETF, mint stablecoin, depositing USDT USDC to the exchange, and accumulating coins to cold wallets are not as strong as the market period /5/7.
During this period, the market is being pumped, brothers holding dollars keep buying coins + narrative is fomo. If you have profit, close it, put bullets into the main bag => I believe the giant wave is still ahead.
- When everyone out there is shouting that the macro is good, the market is too good. Then you will see how terrible the liquidity of the investment markets is.
- Remember 2020 2021. After the end of Covid, I myself did not expect the real estate liquidity to be terrible, the price increased every day. Trading like a vegetable market,
even in the #crypto market from the beginning of 2021 onwards, it was extremely exciting, almost any coin you buy will be profitable. Buying is profitable, so the most difficult people outside also believe that the market will increase.
- So clearly investing is buying to wait, not waiting to buy. Because if we wait until the time to buy, we will be the liquidity of the market! #btc #eth #crypto
Only 3 days left, September 29, when Anh Hai is officially released.
It has been 4 months of turmoil since he left.
Will his return be able to save this frustrating and thorny market?
As mentioned before, you can wait for the Trade part before the first half of October.
Coincidentally, Anh Hai CZ also returned at the end of September, so the market is likely to pump strongly on January 29 and 30, then start to adjust on January 2.
So you can pay more attention.
And I will remind you once again, keep the HOLD part intact and do not be greedy for optimization, because optimization is a coin that is easy to run all the way.
$SUI is a typical example. No optimization is seen, only losing goods and having to climb back to the top.
- Why are there always recovery candles, strong crashes when the market is up or down in the long term?
- Because of human greed, the number of trap orders will also increase with each position and time. So there is no such thing as an eternal increase or an eternal decrease.
- The reason for having 1-minute candles is to let you guys comfortably predict and futures, while the problem for holders is the weekly and monthly charts.
- We have been waiting since the interest rate increased and reached its peak, now the interest rate turns around to find the bottom for the new cycle, there is no reason for you guys to give up.
The current market has only a few coins +100% +200%, does not say whether there is an Altcoin season or not?
Overview, most Altcoins have been accumulating after falling 80-90% from the peak.
=> Don't let the whole market build a series of columns before panicking with FOMO.
To reiterate, all #Altcoin (>80% Altcoins) I see are in the same state of waiting to build columns.
The upcoming uptrend will be strong, I can't predict whether it will crash or not, but if it does, it will be the last beard pull and then increase strongly.
Realized price of short-term holders has been broken and may signal a new uptrend
Realized price: This is the average price that investors have spent to buy Bitcoin over a period of less than 155 days
=> The price of #Bitcoin breaking above this level usually shows that short-term investors are making profits.
Over the past 3 months, this realized price has acted as a resistance level => The price that short-term investors have bought has kept the growth of#BTCprice in check
The Fed cut interest rates causing #Bitcoin to increase sharply, causing the price to break out of this resistance level => To consolidate further growth, Bitcoin needs to hold above this price level.
If this price level becomes support, the price area of 62,000$ will become an important support level.
The chart has broken out of EMA 34, currently accumulating around EMA 34-89. Increasing buying volume has started to appear, the 1D candle closed bullish engulfing quite nicely, breaking out of the downtrend line, the trend continues to increase with Trend AI returning.
The market has recovered strongly after the update 2 weeks ago.
Altcoins have recovered significantly, some have increased strongly such as $TAO $SAGA $SUI $FET...
Currently $BTC is in the indecisive candlestick phase and has not been able to overcome the sell wall in the past few days, it is likely to adjust in the next few days.
Offchain data shows that the sell wall is thickly placed over 65k between exchanges, this is also the 64k mark adjusted to 52k in early September.
The condition for BTC price to increase at this time is that the MM team removes the sell wall or there is a buying force that breaks through the sell wall above to reach further levels. However, my view is that $BTC will adjust in the next few days.
The insider team that previously borrowed a large amount of money from the AAVE protocol has returned the loan, showing the cautious mentality of this big team.
The fact that this team's timing is standard for the market to borrow a large amount of money in the 52-54k period is also a long way for them to bet that the market will correct and have better entries to open borrowing positions.
OI (open positions) has moved up to the 19B mark, which is quite sensitive when 20B is the $BTC mark, which will adjust, limit borrowing positions and consider closing short-term trade orders.