The number of headlines on the topic of restructuring the global monetary system has increased. Even UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres made a similar statement.
When everything goes according to plan, the train moves along the rails - passengers do not have many questions about the operation of the train, the functioning of individual elements, and even the driver))
But when one carriage begins to chatter, the wheelsets begin to brake randomly, passengers hit their heads on the shelves, and the driver shouts: “Everything is fine with us, we’re moving on, now we’ll just reduce the rate, i.e. the speed of the train”... questions and The media headlines are screaming louder and more frequently.
Maybe it's time to change something and admit that the Bretton Woods system has not justified itself and it's time to try something new?
What is there now?
You can measure everything with resources and move in this direction, defining the energy expended as the basic measure of cost assessment. There are a lot of studies written on this topic, we won’t go deeper.
The BRICS countries are creating their own token, i.e. currency. An attempt to give up the dollar, but what in return? The same fiat that is supported by the unification of countries, their economies and political influence.
Basically, nothing new.
Cryptocurrency?
Very interesting.
Stablecoins
The total trading volume of stablecoins in 2023 has already exceeded $3 trillion. Kaiko data:
Stablecoins have a number of advantages over fiat, although they are also fiat in a digital shell (except for decentralized stablecoins).
Risks: stablecoin issuer. The issuer can be put under pressure, prohibited from issuing new coins (#BUSD ) or forced to issue more coins on demand (=turn into digital fiat or worse - #CBDC ).
But the “black list” of stablekins is annoying - restrictions on sending, receiving or redeeming tokens.
Decentralized stablecoins have a big advantage here.
BTC
Satoshi’s brainchild is more likely to stand on a par with gold due to its uniqueness and limitations.
Lightning solutions will help use BTC as a means of payment, but I don’t think it will be widespread, unless, of course, complete trust in fiat and stables is undermined.
There is a problem with the currency in Argentina now, what do ordinary people choose? #USDT and #BTC
Other cryptocurrencies
The volatility factor will not allow them to take a dominant role and get ahead of BTC and stablecoins.
So, what are the likely scenarios awaiting us in the future?
There are several scenarios for the development of events:
Gradually, crypto solutions will be introduced into the current financial system:
– CBDC with cryptocurrency sauce.
– Normal cryptocurrency.
The current financial system will gradually eat itself, and there will be a sharp transition through shocks.
The first scenario looks more thought out or something. Fiat, stablecoins, tokens, cash (a small percentage) will have a role, and history will show what is more effective and what will fade into the background or die out (like landlines gave way to mobile phones).
Why? Yes, it’s more convenient. We don’t use gold for cross-border transfers, so why the extra inconvenience?
If you give people all the options for use, it will immediately become clear in which direction to move.
Cryptocurrencies (except BTC and stables) can be used in corporate ecosystems and products under different #utility and in partner companies too.
We will soon find out how it will happen in practice and what scenario will ultimately come to life. You and I will witness the restructuring of the world monetary system.