With Bitcoin at $30,000, differences continue to intensify. Past history has no reference value because the short term is full of variables.

Of course, I hope the market will be more rational.

It would be best if the sectors rotated and Bitcoin, which had skyrocketed by 80%, consolidated for a period of time, exchanging time for space. Let Ethereum and Binance Coin lead the market, and continuously lead the market in alternating cycles, so that the bull market in 2023 and the bull market in 2024 can be handed over more perfectly.

But will the market be rational?

The market is not only rational, but also greed and fear.

The bull market is like a super pendulum. At any stage, even if it is only two or three months of spiral consolidation, spiral squatting or spiral rising, it can bury a large number of innocent people who chase after rising and selling when prices fall.

No one knows what kind of emotion will dominate the market in the next few months: rationality, greed, or panic?

We can only deal with the future by calculating possible probabilities.

1. If the market is too greedy, and the long tail of greed swings to 40,000 or even close to 50,000 US dollars in the first half of the year, then there will be no expected space in the second half of the year and it will only fall back and deleverage. We can only expect the second year of the bull market, after the Bitcoin halving in 2024, to hand over the increase.

2. If the market is very rational, the bottom line has been $30,000 in the first half of the year, and maybe the second half of the year will be worse than the first half. But there is also room for expectation. The important thing is the rotation of sectors. Rational rise will make the handover of the increase in 2023 and 2024 smoother.

3. If the market becomes panic and falls back to $25,000 in the first half of the year, it will create opportunities for investors to buy at a low price. Then the performance in the second half of 2023 will become more predictable, and the room for growth may not be smaller than in the first half of the year.

Cause and effect cycle, everything is changing.

A affects B, B affects C, A affects C.

Changes in the first half of the year will directly affect changes in the second half of the year.

If there is anything that remains unchanged, it is the big cycle. The three-year bull market has gone from the bottom to recovery, and from recovery to prosperity.

No matter how the spiral goes in the middle, the final increase will be linked~