Bitcoin currently has strong support around 92,000. Yesterday, the trend first slowly declined, creating a panic atmosphere of falling from a high level. However, in the last two hours of the night, it unexpectedly rebounded and finally closed in the shape of a spindle. This pattern reveals an important message - the space for subsequent decline is actually very limited.
Yesterday, there was a major news that the US government plans to sell Bitcoin on the Silk Road. This news instantly threw the market into chaos, and panic spread rapidly in the short term. In addition, due to the previous market rally, it is now in a correction phase, and many funds have withdrawn for risk aversion. So how to deal with it next? Will Bitcoin continue to fall? What should I do if I am trapped? From the adjustment of Bitcoin, the black line represents the first part of the adjustment, the blue line represents the second part, and the red line represents the third part.
It is worth noting that the red line is not a driving wave. Judging from the performance of Bitcoin alone, it is currently in an extremely strong horizontal adjustment state, which is a trend of exchanging time for space. In a bull market, this head and shoulders pattern is more likely to be a relay signal rather than a top reversal signal.
The MACD indicator at the daily level has shown a bottom divergence, and the complete line chart has been drawn:
I think the market is expected to rebound in the future. However, whether it is a rebound or a reversal depends on the performance of the upper pressure level.
The small-level pressure levels are at 97000 and 98500 respectively; the large-level pressure levels are at 102000 and 105000.
Ethereum is now basically following Bitcoin, and is still fluctuating in the box above. For this rebound or rise, if I can't break through the upper edge of the box, I will not do it for the time being.
Compared with Ethereum, Solana's current performance is indeed a bit weak, which really puzzles me. Obviously, in terms of ecology, projects such as MEME and AI AGENT are in full swing, but why is Solana's price so sluggish? This is the second time it has tested the daily MA120.
The support pressure conversion position I mentioned earlier, 220, was unexpectedly strong in the short-seller defense. In terms of strategy, just like Ethereum, for this rebound or reversal, if Solana cannot outperform Bitcoin, then it will be decisive to liquidate. After all, maintaining a good attitude is the most important thing.
Now let's take a look at the situation of altcoins. Currently, most altcoins are fluctuating with the market, and the general decline is about 10%. From the perspective of market sentiment, the fear and greed index has dropped to 43, which shows that everyone's mood is relatively low, and there are more and more bearish voices in the market. However, I don't think there is any need to worry too much, and the long-term upward trend still exists.
Recently, I have seen many discussions about the postponement of the "copycat season", and everyone is deeply confused. What exactly is the copycat season? Here, I would like to share my own views. First of all, I am not sure how everyone understands the "copycat season". Is the period from September 2023 to March 2024 considered the copycat season?
BTC has risen from 25,000 to 71,000, nearly 3 times. Is the wave from early August to the end of December considered the altcoin season? BTC has risen from 50,000 to 108,000, doubling its growth. Why was the altcoin wave in March 2024 so fierce? Because the main uptrend of BTC has just begun, while altcoins have been in a bear market for a year before that.
Therefore, in the secondary market, many dark horse coins such as SEI, TIA, WLD, OM and Inscription series have achieved an increase of more than ten times, mainly new coins and new narratives.
However, the market trend since August is different. First of all, the funds are more differentiated, and the increase in BTC is relatively small, so there are not so many dark horses emerging in the altcoins. Only SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT and some old DeFi currencies have shown several times the increase. But is this considered an altcoin market?
From a macro perspective, various funds flow into BTC through compliant channels, which is the trend of the future. Therefore, these new institutions generally do not touch altcoins unless they are involved in projects. As a result, there is not much fresh blood flowing into the altcoin market, and it is mainly retail investors and hot money in the circle that are operating. I think the so-called "altcoin season" is not necessarily a fixed time node, but a phased market.
We cannot always use the markets in 2017 and 2021 to understand the current and future altcoin markets. The future altcoin market may be like that in March or December 2024. There may be some dark horse projects, but the size and explosiveness of the overall market still depend on the increase in BTC. If BTC falls to around 70,000 this time, fluctuates for half a year, and then rises to 180,000, then I believe the altcoin market will replicate the market in March 2024, with more dark horse projects appearing, and retail investors will also be able to earn more.
Therefore, it doesn’t matter what exactly is the “copycat season”. The most important thing is how many opportunities you can seize and how much profit you can make in each wave of the market.
Is there still hope for MOODENG's future?
Its current trend shows that the original support level has turned into a resistance level. If I hold MOODENG, I will not continue to hold it once it falls below the 0.32 area. From the perspective of band operation, unless it can stand above 0.32 again, I will not pay attention to it anymore.
Where are the support and resistance levels of Render? At present, the 6.6 area has not been broken, so I still analyze it according to the rising structure. The support level and the target price (TP) above are marked in the figure, you can check it out for yourself.
The capital strength behind NEAR is quite strong. In the layer1 sector, NEAR is also a leader. The decline this time is about 20%. The expected 4.5 position did not show a spike, and the price of 5 showed very obvious signs of support. If a rebound occurs at this position, it can at least reach 5.8.
Among the currencies that rebounded most violently yesterday, HYPER ranked first, followed by SWARM.
SWARM's LP range is between 150 million and 450 million. As long as the price is in this range, I feel very comfortable. I don't really care about short-term LP profits or losses. After a big rise, blue chip stocks usually enter a range of fluctuations.
Although AI16Z has a relatively large market value, it is more suitable for large funds to operate. In the AI Agent track, every market decline is an opportunity to select good projects and the best time to exchange junk coins for high-quality coins. Those coins pretending to be gold will be buried in the sand of the market forever. Therefore, eliminating the false and retaining the true will become the main theme in the future.
Now, let's focus on the second bottoming of THE. At present, THE has stabilized and is showing an upward trend. Its cost-effectiveness is quite good, and you can consider entering the market. The first position is set to the current price to 1.2 range; the cover position range is 1.1 to 1.08. Target ① is around 1.36; Target ② is between 1.5 and 1.6.
If you have any concerns, you can wait until the evening data is released before making an assessment. For all shared currencies, if there is no special stop loss, the maximum hard stop loss is set at 20%. If you make a position-covering operation, you can sell half of it when the price returns to the average price.
If you hold these three types of altcoins, you will definitely cry in the toilet:
1. L2 sectors, such as ARB, Metis, and Manta, have fallen more than 70% from their highs.
2. Inscription sectors, such as ORDIS and SATS, have fallen more than 75% from their highs.
3. SOL-related MEMEs, such as WIF and POPCAT, have also fallen by more than 70% from their highs.
NEIRO, ACT, PNUT, the three major leeks carriages
How many of them do you have? If you have collected all three, congratulations, you have become the most noble person!
Finally, let’s summarize the important information content in recent times.
First, the Metaverse project AVA has been on a good rise recently. It has transformed from the Metaverse to a personal AI agent, and its current market value has reached 250 million US dollars.
Secondly, some currencies in the AI meme sector have also seen a sharp rise, such as LLM and Pippin. LLM is mocking AI16z's AI meme, while Pippin has transformed from an AI meme to a framework platform. Now it seems that in the vast AI track, framework platforms and AI meme projects seem to be more likely to achieve large market capitalizations, which is somewhat similar to the logic of public chains and memes.
Third, in terms of game framework, Stealth has also seen a significant increase. This project has transformed from a Web2 game to an AI game chain project, has 2 million daily active users on the Roblox platform, and has also cooperated with AI16z's Eliza platform.
Fourth, the meme coin Kekius has also seen an increase recently. Musk has started to call for orders again. Kekius is a meme coin on the ETH chain. It has fallen 80% from its highs, but its trading volume has always been among the top three meme coins on the ETH chain. Will it usher in a second wave of market like Would?
