The non-agricultural data will be released tonight, and the market has also shown some signs of stabilization. Yesterday, the market fell to 91,700 points, then rebounded to 94,700 points, and then adjusted back to around 91,200 points in the early morning. The market is currently continuing to rebound and has risen back to around 94,000 points.
It is worth noting that the Fear and Greed Index is now around 50, which is actually a very interesting signal. 50 points means that market sentiment is relatively neutral, neither particularly panic nor particularly greedy. Usually, in a bull market, such a neutral state is not common, which may also suggest that the market is close to the bottom.
The ratio of longs to shorts on OKX is also high. This means that the longs in the market are more active, and the funds for long positions in the market are increasing, which may be a safer buying area. In addition, the current funding rate of Bitcoin is negative, and BNB also has a funding rate of -0.03. This usually means that the market may undergo some repairs in the short term, especially when the bearish sentiment in the market is strong, and many people are waiting for the price to fall further. But we know that the market makers usually like to do the opposite, so this may be a signal of a market rebound.
The liquidation data of short positions is also very interesting. According to the latest statistics, a large number of short positions have accumulated below 103,000 points, and many short stop loss points are here. Therefore, if the market continues to rebound, it may trigger the liquidation of these short positions and push the market up further. As mentioned before, the big cake may continue to rise when Trump takes office, with the target being the 103,000 to 105,000 range. After all, the recent rise in the market was affected by Trump's policies. If the historical law is still valid, the market will generally rise before the release of good news, and then it will pull back.
Therefore, my opinion is that the market is more likely to rebound at present. But it should be noted that after the rebound, there may be a deeper correction. Therefore, if you can make money in this rebound, don't forget to take profits in time. After all, the end of the year is approaching, and it is better to be cautious before the Chinese New Year.
There is only one trading day left for the US stock market this week. I hope that when the US stock market opens tonight, the ETF market will usher in a wave of bargain hunting. As for altcoins, once a currency like Ethereum starts to fall, it is really difficult to judge where the bottom is. Therefore, if you want to bargain hunt, it is best to choose mainstream currencies first, and then consider other altcoins.
In general, before Trump takes office, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise to 103,000~105,000, although there may be some twists and turns in the process. But if the market in January is not ideal, there will usually be better returns in February. The most important thing in the early stage is to keep the position active and wait patiently for the bullish trend of the market to return. If your position is heavy, it is recommended to reduce the position in time during the rebound.
The Fear and Greed Index has returned to 50, indicating that market sentiment has stabilized. Now is a good time to buy at the bottom!
