Whether there is a trigger point for the current market depends on two points:
Trump's positive policy and the expectation of interest rate cuts. Trump's positive policy is not easy to implement in the first few months, so there is only positive sentiment from the speech, so we must keep an eye on the expectation of interest rate cuts. After the data was released yesterday, the expectation of interest rate cuts in March was greatly depressed. If the expectation is reduced, the big cake and the cottage will adjust, and vice versa. If the probability begins to blur, for example, it hovers between 40-60%, then the market will be volatile. If there is volatility, you must be aware of volatility. If you make a good profit, you must pocket it, and you can't be sloppy.
The probability of interest rate cuts in March will fall below 20% before it is possible to approach a lower point or even 9w. Later, we will pay attention to the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech after the fomc meeting on the 29th to judge how the market will go.
I have said before that the expectation of interest rate cuts will occur in March. I think the Fed also wants to see how the tariff rules will work after Trump takes office, and whether they will have an impact on inflation in the next two or three months after implementation. Trump only took office in late January, so the tariff rules will appear in the next month at the earliest, and the real impact of economic data will not be shown until March at the earliest.
If the Fed really only cuts interest rates twice throughout the year, each move must be extremely cautious. For example, it should make a move once when Trump's corrective policy is relatively clear, and then make a second/third move after the impact of the corrective policy on the economy is fully reflected in the data and the impact is not significant.
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