What exactly qualifies as an 'altcoin season'?
I wonder how everyone understands 'altcoin season'? Taking the wave from September 2023 to March 2024 as an example, Bitcoin rose from 25,000 to 71,000, almost tripling. Can this wave of market trends be considered an altcoin season?
Looking again at the period from August to December 2024, Bitcoin rose from 50,000 to 108,000, an increase of 100%. Can this be considered an altcoin season?
Looking back at the altcoin trend in March 2024, why was it so vigorous? Because at that time, Bitcoin's main upward wave had just begun, while altcoins had experienced a bear market lasting a year. Thus, the secondary market saw dark horse projects like SEI, TIA, WLD, OM, and the inscriptions series that multiplied over ten times, still dominated by new coins and new narratives.
However, this wave of market trends starting from August is quite different. Firstly, the funds are more dispersed, and the increase in Bitcoin is relatively small. Therefore, there haven't been many dark horses among altcoins; the market mainly focuses on cryptocurrencies like SUI, XRP, PUNT, ACT, etc. Some old DeFi projects have also shown several times of performance. But can this still be considered the 'altcoin season'?
I personally believe that, on a macro level, the situation of various funds entering Bitcoin through compliant channels will continue to increase. Whether now or in the future, funds will continuously flow into Bitcoin. As for the altcoins in the secondary market, everyone understands that new institutional investors are unlikely to easily buy coins from other projects unless they are involved in those projects.
Therefore, the inflow of funds into the altcoin market is not as obvious as before; it is still mainly retail and speculative funds playing against each other, while funds in the primary market are also differentiating between the secondary markets.
Therefore, the so-called 'altcoin season' does exist, but we need to adjust our thinking to understand it. You can't simply compare the altcoin trends of 2017 and 2021 with the current and future markets.
The future altcoin market will resemble the trends of March and December 2024, no longer having a so-called 'real altcoin season', but rather existing in phases of altcoin trends - when the market is strong, there are many dark horse projects with large increases; when the market is weak, there are few dark horse projects with low increases.
The strength of the altcoin market ultimately depends on Bitcoin's increase. If Bitcoin drops to around 70,000 and consolidates for half a year, then rises to 180,000, I believe the altcoin market will replicate the trend from March 2024, with more dark horse projects and retail investors finding opportunities more easily.
So, what exactly constitutes an 'altcoin season' is not that important. The key is how many opportunities we can seize in each wave of market trends and how much we can profit.
Today's article ends here. Feel free to explore the homepage and have fun together~
Investment carries risks. The above content is personal sharing and does not constitute investment advice!