Taking advantage of today's BTC downtrend, let's provide some reference for friends.

We can see that the red line is about to exit the previously mentioned "most likely to experience a pullback period" range. Overall, it is better than the worst expected outcome, meaning that the pullback within this timeframe is less than 30%.

We can roughly summarize the mystical patterns of the red line's trend since March 2024 to now, with the following points:

🚩1. In most cases, the red line will not be at its lowest. Either the green line is the lowest, or the blue line is the lowest.

🚩2. If the blue line and the green line are synchronously sticking together while the red line deviates, in most cases, a return and approach to the blue and green lines will occur.

🚩3. The overall trend is in sync with the trends of the blue and green lines. That is, when the blue and green lines are both declining, the red line also declines; when the blue and green lines are both rising, the red line also rises;

Currently, the position of the red line is between the green line and the blue line, closer to the blue line, so there is no issue of deviation. Therefore, assuming the previous mystical patterns are still valid, then......

🚩1. If the red line continues to go down, its lowest point will not be lower than the blue line (according to point 1 above).

🚩2. The current closest low point to the blue line is MVRV 2.13 (marked by the red dashed circle in the figure), which corresponds to a BTC price of around $88,000; this is the limit of this indicator and may not necessarily reach it.

(Figure 2)

If we look at the URPD chip structure (as of January 8), $88,000 is just within the previously mentioned "buffer zone" (marked 2 in Figure 2).

The last time BTC pulled back to the upper edge of this range (December 30, 2024), there was a large amount of buying, which caused the cumulative chip volume to rise rapidly and form support. Let's see the data feedback in the next couple of days to determine if it remains the same.

(Figure 3)

What amazes me even more is that $88,000 is exactly the average turnover cost line for short-term holders! (Red line in Figure 3) #DeFAI热点 #币安Alpha上新 #晒交易赢奖励 #加密市场回调