A sudden storm is sweeping across the Canadian political arena. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a shocking decision: he will resign as prime minister in the coming months. This decision not only marks a major turning point in Canadian politics, but also brings a political earthquake to voters against the backdrop of an uncertain economic outlook and intensifying political infighting.
Trudeau's statement comes at a time when the Canadian Parliament is in a deadlock. To make matters worse, the soon-to-be-elected Trump administration has made it clear that it will impose punitive tariffs on Canadian imports. This news undoubtedly casts a shadow on Canada's political and economic prospects. Trudeau's resignation has undoubtedly made the already turbulent Canadian political situation even worse.
On a cold, windy morning in the capital Ottawa, Trudeau candidly told reporters outside his residence: "It's time to start anew." He also announced that parliament would be suspended until March 24 and that he would continue to serve as the leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister until a new successor is chosen through a nationwide Liberal Party election. Trudeau stated that he sincerely believes that eliminating the debate surrounding whether he should continue in leadership is an opportunity to ease the political tensions.
Trudeau, the 53-year-old political leader, first entered the political stage nearly a decade ago and quickly became a progressive icon in the Western world. However, with rising sentiments against the incumbent government, the emergence of anti-immigrant waves, and the ongoing impact of soaring inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic, Trudeau has not escaped unscathed. Although Canada's inflation rate has fallen below 2%, the unemployment rate remains high, staying above 6%.
The pressure on Trudeau is increasing day by day. For months, he has faced growing skepticism within his party. Last December, the sudden resignation of his close ally, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, added significant momentum to this political storm. In her resignation statement, Freeland harshly criticized Trudeau's leadership style and governance of the country, claiming he was indulging in "costly political games" and had failed to adequately prepare for the challenges posed by Trump.
Freeland's departure sparked widespread calls from Liberal MPs for Trudeau to prioritize the party's interests and resign voluntarily so that others could lead the party in the election. Meanwhile, the rise of the Conservatives has also placed unprecedented pressure on Trudeau. In recent polls, the Conservatives have a significant double-digit lead over the Liberals. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre actively promoted his governing ideas on social media, including cutting unpopular carbon taxes, building housing, fixing the budget, and tackling crime, all of which have garnered broad support.
The turmoil in Canadian politics comes at a time when the country faces the severe threat of Trump’s tariffs. Trump claims he will impose tariffs on Canada, a move that would severely disrupt the trade agreement between Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The implementation of tariffs could deliver a devastating blow to the Canadian economy, which heavily relies on exports, particularly in the oil and automotive sectors. The U.S. and Canada are each other's largest trading partners, and the imposition of tariffs would undoubtedly have far-reaching economic implications for both sides.
In response to this challenge, Trudeau personally traveled to Florida in late November last year to visit Trump and negotiate. However, the talks seemed to yield no substantial progress. In early December, Trump mocked Trudeau on social media as the "great governor of Canada," further exacerbating tensions between the two.
On Monday, Trump responded to Trudeau's resignation, once again hinting that Canada should become the "51st state" of the U.S. He stated on social media that if Canada merged with the U.S., it would reduce taxes and eliminate tariffs. This statement undoubtedly adds more uncertainty to Canada's future.
After Trudeau announced his resignation, potential successors became the focus of public attention. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Freeland, current Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Melanie Joly, who has served as Canada's top diplomat since 2021, and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who previously served as Governor of the Bank of England, are all potential candidates.
Trudeau's government does not have a majority in parliament, which severely restricts his actions. On Monday, he stated that the legislature has been "completely mired in obstruction, delay tactics, and a total lack of efficiency." In comments made in French, he bluntly pointed out that parliament "no longer functions."
To give his party time to select a new leader, Trudeau decided to suspend parliament (a process known as "proroguing parliament"). He indicated that the new leader will emerge through a "strong, national, competitive process." A new, perhaps more popular leader could bring new hope for the Liberal Party in the upcoming national elections.
Although the next election must be held before October this year, the possibility of an early call or forced vote still exists. However, a Liberal government under a new Prime Minister may be "short-lived." Shortly after the new parliament convenes, the Liberal government may face a confidence vote. Since the party holds only a minority of seats in parliament and has lost support from all other parties, it is likely to lose this vote. This would force Canada to hold a federal election.
Trudeau spent a decade building his political brand around identities such as feminists, environmentalists, refugees, and Indigenous advocates, and aimed to convey a message of change and hope similar to that of Barack Obama. However, analysts point out that this brand has become ineffective for Trudeau. As the political environment changes and voter sentiment fluctuates, Trudeau's political career seems to have reached its end.
After announcing his resignation, Trudeau returned to his residence in Ottawa. This decision marks not only a turning point in his personal political career but will also bring about a series of profound changes and challenges for Canada’s future. How will Canadian politics unfold a new chapter in this uncertain time? This will be the focal point for all those concerned about Canadian politics and economics.