From a structural perspective, the cryptocurrency market, especially in the United States, has undergone profound changes in industry rule structures with the government transition and policy adjustments following the elections. As the world's largest GDP nation, the structural reforms promoted by the United States have far-reaching and lasting impacts on the industry. These changes will not end in the short term; rather, they will bring long-term benefits to the industry.
Despite the market's strong performance recently, especially with significant gains in the past month and a half, the effects of many industry benefits have yet to fully materialize. Such structural changes require time to brew before they can gradually release their true value in the market.
Whether from a structural perspective or short-term market dynamics, the current industry is in a very promising development phase, and the future remains worth期待.
From the perspective of DeFi, TVL (Total Value Locked) is a very key indicator. At the same time, the number of user addresses can also be monitored, although there may be some false active addresses created for exploiting rewards. However, through in-depth analysis, it is usually possible to distinguish between real growth and abnormal behavior. Furthermore, the performance differences between different public blockchains and their Layer 2 solutions can also provide important market insights.
Another aspect worth paying attention to is the stock performance and quarterly reports of listed companies such as Coinbase. These reports often reveal more details about industry growth. In addition, the scale of financing and project market capitalization also reflect market confidence in the industry's prospects.
Of course, Bitcoin remains the leader in the industry. The market capitalization of Bitcoin largely determines the upper limit of the entire industry. For example, following the recent election, Bitcoin's market capitalization increased by 40% to 50%, indicating a significant rise in the industry's upper limit and further release of market potential.
Currently, the most promising sector remains DeFi. DeFi has always been one of the core application areas in the cryptocurrency industry and is an important narrative supporting the development of on-chain economies. With the gradual improvement of the regulatory environment in the United States, I believe the development space for DeFi will become broader and more free. In fact, the market performance in the past month has already validated this, with many DeFi projects performing exceptionally well.
Stablecoins are also an important sector highly related to DeFi. Stablecoins themselves are a very profitable business, especially when interest rates decrease. With their network effects, the profit potential of stablecoins remains enormous. Additionally, stablecoins have a positive impact on national currency sovereignty. For example, the current global digital currency market is almost entirely priced in USD stablecoins, which has, to some extent, reinforced the dollar's hegemonic status.
The market recognition is also increasing, for instance, a U.S. startup was recently acquired at a high price due to its stablecoin payment solution, demonstrating the potential and value of this field. Therefore, I believe that the stablecoin sector will continue to grow in the future. For example, Ethena has successfully combined DeFi, stablecoins, and Bitcoin's base interest rates, making it a hot project in the market.
In the field of public blockchains, it is still uncertain who will ultimately become the dominant player. Currently, Ethereum remains the largest smart contract public blockchain, but other public blockchains like Solana are nearing or even surpassing Ethereum in terms of on-chain user activity. The narrative of public blockchains began to rise about seven or eight years ago but is far from over. Many new projects, such as Sui and Hyperliquid, are continuously attempting breakthroughs. The ceiling in this sector is extremely high, as Ethereum's high valuation provides a reference for this field, which will continue to attract more innovators in the future.
Additionally, Bitcoin has already become a trend as an independent asset, and there's no need for further elaboration.
For other sectors, although DePin has been discussed for over a year, its growth is relatively steady, with a weaker flywheel effect, and it is still in a stage of steady development. Meanwhile, DeSci is still very early, but its intersection with blockchain and digital currencies is very clear, and it may become a field worth关注 in the future.
Overall, the sectors I am most optimistic about include DeFi, stablecoins, public blockchains, and AI, while Bitcoin remains the core asset of the entire industry. The performance of other emerging trends will require more time to validate their long-term value.
