Spillover effects of the tech correction
As a bellwether in the global AI and technology fields, Nvidia's plunge is not just a problem for individual stocks, but also reveals the market's sensitivity to highly valued assets. With the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, growth assets are under valuation pressure. This logic also applies to the crypto market, especially the high-volatility, high-risk altcoin sector, which is more vulnerable when affected by external negative factors.
Market sentiment deteriorates and risk appetite declines
The volatility of the US stock market directly affects the risk appetite of the global capital market. In the context of the general withdrawal of risky assets, the crypto market is unlikely to remain immune. As one of the asset categories with the highest risk-return ratio in the crypto market, altcoins have become a concentrated area of selling pressure.
The dual blow of tightening US dollar liquidity
Recently, US dollar liquidity has tightened, and capital has started to flow back to safe-haven assets (such as the US dollar and US Treasuries). As core assets like Nvidia weaken, the appeal of high-risk preferences in the crypto market decreases, further intensifying the selling pressure on altcoins.
Altcoin market: emotional release and supply-demand imbalance
1. Lack of new traffic, existing funds are competing
The bullish cycle of the altcoin market is highly dependent on the drive of new traffic. However, the current macro environment suppresses the enthusiasm of off-market funds to enter, and the competition among existing funds in the market is becoming increasingly fierce. Recent selling pressure indicates that the bullish momentum is gradually exhausting, and bears are starting to gain the upper hand.
2. Short-term rebounds are weak, and adjustments may continue
The price fluctuations of altcoins show a clear bearish dominant trend. Even if a short-term rebound occurs, it is difficult to change the overall downward structure. Ethereum has lost key support levels in this round of adjustments, and if market sentiment remains low, the possibility of ETH dropping to $3000 is gradually increasing.
Bearish strategy: Add positions on rebounds, follow the trend
From the price trend, if Bitcoin rebounds to around 98-99, it will be an ideal point to add short positions. The current market downward trend is clear, and any rebound may be an opportunity for bears to increase positions. Follow the trend, continue to be patient, and wait for better entry opportunities.
Risk management: Preventing extreme market rebounds
Although the current market presents a bearish pattern, one must still be wary of sudden changes in the macro environment (such as the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals or a weakening dollar). When executing bearish strategies, it is necessary to strictly set stop losses to avoid losses caused by sudden rebounds.
Medium to long-term perspective: macro data and market turning points
In the medium to long term, the main driving forces of the market will be improvements in macro liquidity and the fundamentals of the crypto industry. Investors need to closely monitor the direction of Federal Reserve policies, macroeconomic data, and the impact of cyclical events such as Bitcoin halving.
Continue to endure, patience is essential
The current market environment is destined to be a "protracted battle." The adjustments of altcoins are the result of both internal and external factors, and it is difficult to see signs of trend reversal in the short term. However, in a highly volatile market, maintaining patience and rationality while following a clear strategy is crucial.
As market participants, we need to continue to endure while strictly enforcing discipline, waiting for the next opportunity when the trend becomes clear.
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