As early as before he won the election in November last year, the new US President Trump promised to establish Bitcoin reserves in the United States after he officially took office, which made the entire cryptocurrency community look forward to it.

However, just before Trump is about to officially take office on the 20th of this month, according to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, people believe that the probability of Trump building up Bitcoin reserves in his first 100 days in office is only 31%, far lower than the 60% when Trump won the election in early November last year.

Netizen: The first thing is to ensure that Bitcoin is not sold

In response to this, some netizens commented below this prediction that this is actually very easy to do because the US government already holds a large amount of Bitcoin. After taking office, Trump only needs to sign an executive order to transfer the Bitcoin in the US Department of Justice wallet to a new wallet and promise not to sell it. This does not require the US government to immediately pay out to buy it, but it represents Trump's determination to build up Bitcoin reserves.

Additionally, Skybridge Capital founder and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci recently stated in an interview with the Bankless Podcast that the U.S. government plans to purchase Bitcoin on a large scale, potentially up to 500,000 Bitcoins, which will be reviewed by the Senate.

Scaramucci's core argument for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is in comparison to gold. The U.S. currently holds about $600 billion in gold reserves, and he believes that even a small portion of this could be allocated to Bitcoin, or even selling part of the gold reserves, would strengthen the U.S. economy in the digital transformation era.

However, some experts believe it is not that simple. From the perspective of U.S. executive orders or legislative processes, if Trump wants to implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve, he would need to have the cryptocurrency committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessments immediately after taking office, formally proposing a plan upon completion, which could then proceed through two paths:

Path One: Presidential Executive Order (as early as the second half of 2025)

Issuing an executive order directly after Trump takes office is the quickest path, as it can bypass conservative and opposing resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress. It also references a draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the U.S. Treasury to utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly allocate Bitcoin.

However, while this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require Congressional approval, it can be investigated and legislated against by Congress. An executive order can also be overturned or modified by the next president, and thus its permanence and stability are not as strong as legislation.

Path Two: Congressional Legislation (as early as the second half of 2026)

If a more stable legislative path is pursued, it will require a longer process. After policy research and feasibility assessments by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, then pass through the Senate, the House of Representatives, and be signed by the president before it can be officially enacted.

This process may experience various back-and-forths and is relatively complex. After all, many conservative lawmakers are likely to raise objections and obstruct the process. Therefore, although this path can result in a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, likely not materializing until the second half of 2026 to 2027.

Recent news indicates that the crypto industry is pushing Trump's team to issue an executive order on his first day in office next month, initiating his promised cryptocurrency policy reforms to help promote the mainstreaming of crypto. If it goes through an executive order, we may see the implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve as early as mid-2025.

Czech Republic considers establishing a Bitcoin reserve

As Trump proposed establishing a Bitcoin reserve, officials in Japan, Russia, and Europe have begun discussing this possibility. The well-known American business magazine (Forbes) even boldly predicted that by 2025, either the G7 group or the BRICS countries may establish Bitcoin reserves, sparking a global Bitcoin reserve competition, aligning Bitcoin's status with assets such as gold, foreign exchange reserves, and sovereign bonds.

Just yesterday (7th), Czech National Bank President Aleš Michl stated in an interview with CNN that he is currently considering incorporating Bitcoin into the national foreign exchange reserve diversification portfolio, and the government's interest in cryptocurrency is also increasing.

However, the Czech National Bank currently has no plans to immediately purchase crypto assets, and whether to approve and implement this plan will depend on a vote by board members.