On Wednesday (January 8), Bitcoin fell below $97,000. According to data from the large cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of President-elect Trump establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve dropped sharply to 31%. Analysts believe he will not sign an executive order on his first day in office and will instead buy Bitcoin behind the scenes, which suggests that the expected black swan event may not materialize, further impacting the bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
Polymarket data shows that when Trump wins the election in November 2024, the market bets on the likelihood of him establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve in his first 100 days in office, which once peaked at 60%. However, as the enthusiasm waned, the market began to believe he would not set up a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
As of Wednesday morning, the likelihood of Trump establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve plummeted to 31%.
Skybridge Capital founder and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci recently stated in an interview on the Bankless Podcast that the U.S. government plans to purchase Bitcoin on a large scale, potentially up to 500,000 Bitcoins, which will be reviewed by the Senate.
Scaramucci's core argument for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is a comparison with gold. The U.S. currently holds about $600 billion in gold reserves, and he believes that even a small portion of that could be invested in Bitcoin or even selling part of the gold reserves could strengthen the U.S. economy in the digital transformation era.
However, according to Bezinga, cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten expressed skepticism on Thursday about Trump announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve on his first day in office.
He predicted on Twitter: 'I don't think Trump will announce a Bitcoin strategic reserve through an executive order on the first day or in the short term.'
He added that Trump, who supports Bitcoin, may buy behind the scenes rather than announce it publicly. 'Announcing Bitcoin reserves to the whole world offers no benefits, as the price would far exceed his expectations. He will only buy behind the scenes.'
He stated that the most likely scenario is that Trump will limit the sale of Bitcoins seized by the U.S. government.
According to analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, the U.S. government currently holds 198,109 Bitcoins in its asset forfeiture fund.
Johnny Gabriele, Chief Analyst of the Lifted Initiative Blockchain Economy and Artificial Intelligence Integration, stated that he bets the U.S. will not sell its currently held Bitcoin, referring to it as a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
There are speculations that Trump may establish a national Bitcoin reserve in accordance with his campaign promises.
When asked about a strategic reserve composed of major cryptocurrencies, Trump vowed to 'do something great with cryptocurrencies.'
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed the Bitcoin Act, which advocates for the Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years, with a prohibition on selling or auctioning them for at least 20 years.
The cryptocurrency media BlockTempo quoted experts who outlined two possible paths for Trump after taking office:
Path One: Presidential Executive Order (as early as the second half of 2025)
The fastest path for Trump after taking office is to issue an executive order, as it can bypass resistance from conservatives and opponents such as the Federal Reserve and Congress. It is also based on a draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute' that instructs the U.S. Treasury to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly allocate Bitcoin.
Although this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. The Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require Congressional approval, but it can be investigated and legislatively restricted by Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so their permanence and stability are not as good as legislation.
Path Two: Congressional Legislation (as early as the second half of 2026)
If a more stable legislative path is taken, it requires a longer process. The bill, after undergoing policy research and feasibility assessment by the cryptocurrency committee, needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, and then pass through the Senate, House of Representatives, and be signed by the President before it can be formally legislated.
This process may experience various back-and-forth struggles and is relatively complex, as many conservative lawmakers are likely to oppose and obstruct it. Therefore, although this path can lead to a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, probably not until the second half of 2026 or 2027.
