Yesterday, BTC surged to a high of 102,724, and by night, it showed a dramatic drop.
It's exciting, this rise has support in volume, igniting everyone's enthusiasm for a bull market. But then a cold splash of water came down at night, really a heart-chilling moment, yet uplifting.
The main issue is that the US stock market is underperforming, with Nvidia and blockchain leader MicroStrategy leading the decline. Gold is also falling. Indeed, when retail investors are in a FOMO frenzy, that’s the best time to harvest; a trap is easily set. Now, everyone is eagerly watching the US side, hoping for some good news to be released in the middle to late part of the month.
However, this can also be seen as an early adjustment, which is a good thing. I hope this sharp drop is the last washout before a big bull run. This is for reference only and not to be taken as any investment advice.
Looking at the overall market, it fell to around 96,000 last night, but without any significant drop, it may not be the bottom yet. If it really adjusts below 95,000, you can close your eyes and buy in batches, buying more as it falls! If you don't have any positions, don't rush to short, and definitely don't use large positions to chase up or down; stay steady!
Now let’s talk about $BNB. It’s actually not that bad; while BTC dropped by 5%, it only fell by 3%. It’s expected to consolidate between 690 and 740. MEGADROP has locked in a lot of BNB, which reduces the impulse to sell. This is good news for our long-term holders!
Lastly, let’s look at $ETH, which is expected to fluctuate between 3300 and 3600. It’s performing poorly; just a few days ago, it was praised for being stronger than BTC, but after BTC’s drop last night, it fell significantly too. It’s truly a case of someone who can't be lifted! Let’s keep watching.
Let's talk about today's daily $BTC technical analysis. From the K-line perspective, there is a trend of stopping the decline and going upwards at the 1-hour level, while the 4-hour level shows a decline, the 12-hour level is also down, and the daily level is about to enter a decline. The intraday resistance level is 99,200, and the support level is 945,000 USD.
Let me share a few thoughts on this round of the bull market.
Don't be fooled by many teachers shouting about an explosive bull market every day; when this bull market ends, many people will suffer losses so severe they can never re-enter the circle.
The secondary operation difficulty of this bull market is epic, with both medium to long-term and short-term trading being very challenging. If one day there is a massive withdrawal of liquidity, it could be even more severe than 312, 413, and 519; this is aimed at uprooting the retail investors.
So: 1. Don’t use leverage 2. Don’t go all in 3. Always set stop-loss 4. Don’t get overly excited 5. If you have the opportunity to profit later, don’t be greedy, withdraw in batches 6. Don’t blindly trust teachers; they might be losing more than you. Maintain your own judgment, and consider others’ or experts’ advice as auxiliary references 7. Money invested shouldn’t affect your life; the legendary stories of selling houses or assets to invest and making tenfold or hundredfold profits are just traps for retail investors 8. It’s not that you can’t start playing now, but you need to maintain a clear-headed investment approach, reduce expectations for this bull market, and maybe you can earn some profit when exiting instead of being deeply trapped and regretting every day.
When will the altcoin season come?
Regarding the altcoin season, I’ve mentioned before that the current market is different from the past. It can be concluded that there won't be situations where every coin rises several times, dozens of times, or hundreds of times. The era of market dividends has ended!
In the past, there were fewer altcoins with small market capitalizations, and the chips were highly concentrated. The project teams were also very meticulous. They would win people over with their increases, and everything was in accordance with the white paper's timeline; what to do in Q1, Q2, etc., was all clearly planned out, emphasizing a slow and steady harvest!
Now there are many altcoins with high market capitalizations, and the chips are unclear. The project teams only care about selling! They prioritize quick sales; if one coin becomes tarnished, they simply launch another PPT project, continue selling, and keep harvesting! They ignore the white papers and progress reports, and some project teams sell out their coins and then directly issue more coins to sell (recently, TROY minted tokens on the BSC chain and was found out; now it’s under observation).
The current situation with altcoins is that some project teams have no bottom line. So if you still have unrealistic fantasies about the altcoin market, for some coins that have lost their hype, all you can expect from holding them for a long time is a delisting notice! I advise you to wake up! Don't deceive yourself!
In the future market, only those high-quality tracks and quality coins can be held for the long term. For the rest, I suggest you act like a player, make your profit and retreat!
