Article reprinted from: Odaily Planet Daily.
Original | Odaily Planet Daily.
Author | Wenser.
At the beginning of the new year in 2025, the market seems to be gradually repairing prices amid a downward trend.
Around 10 AM today, the BTC price briefly rose above $99,000 and is currently around $98,800; ETH has risen from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL has similarly risen from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Trump's inauguration approaches, market sentiment is gradually warming up. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize recent market views in this article for readers' reference.
Buying power continues: National, institutional, and corporate buying funds are long-term present.
The price recovery is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying power. After experiencing the "Christmas volatility," the buying power in the new year still seems to be long-term present and increasingly strong.
Data: The total historical net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.909 billion.
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $111.46 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) of 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $13.03 billion, with an ETF net asset rate (the market value compared to the total market value of Ethereum) of 3%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $2.64 billion.
BTC spot ETF data.
ETH spot ETF data.
Furthermore, institutional reports have also shown confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs for 2025.
Steno Research expects net inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to be $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively in 2025; BTC is expected to rise to a minimum of $150,000.
Steno Research recently released a report stating that its bullish price predictions for BTC and ETH reflect "an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment characterized by declining interest rates and improved liquidity, and historically strong performance after Bitcoin halving."
He also stated, "In addition, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and large amounts of funds flowing into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs further drive this trend."
Steno expects the net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs in 2025 to be $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively. Additionally, the report states that by 2025, DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion, far surpassing the previous high of about $180 billion in 2021.
Previously, Steno Research stated in a report that it expects Bitcoin's price to rise from about $94,000 to a minimum of $150,000 in 2025, while ETH's price will more than double, rising from $3,400 to at least $8,000. This means the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trends of previous cycles, with altcoins becoming the focus.
El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the beginning of the year, currently holding approximately 6,009 BTC.
According to on-chain data today, since the beginning of the year, El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: In 2025, we will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings, currently holding over 40,000 BTC.
According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, in 2025, they will continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, valued at over $4 billion.
On Deribit, a large BTC options purchase was made for a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10, totaling 150 BTC.
According to Lin Chen, the head of Deribit Asia Pacific business, the largest BTC block option today was a user who paid $559,000 to purchase a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10 (this Friday), totaling 150 BTC.
Standard Chartered Bank: By 2025, BTC price will reach $200,000, and MicroStrategy will buy more BTC.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin's price will double. He previously stated in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Additionally, he expects that institutional investment in Bitcoin will continue at or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional Bitcoin purchases have reached 683,000 BTC, primarily through the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF and MicroStrategy, which effectively substitutes for software companies investing in Bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that in 2025, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases should match or exceed those of 2024. He also added that the incoming Trump administration is expected to reform the regulations governing traditional finance (TradFi) companies' investment in digital currencies, and pension funds should start incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios via the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF starting next year. Kendrick pointed out that "even a small allocation from the $40 trillion U.S. pension funds would significantly drive up Bitcoin prices. If Bitcoin is adopted more quickly by U.S. pension funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or potential U.S. strategic reserve funds, we would be even more optimistic."
Moreover, major listed companies are still methodically implementing their own "Bitcoin accumulation plans."
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have increased its BTC holdings.
Blockstream founder Adam Back stated: "I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases, but must announce it to the market via an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours when the stock market opens."
According to previous reports, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has published Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: In the past week, 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated: "According to HODL15Capital statistics, since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, many companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement."
Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025.
As a Japanese listed company that enjoys the benefits of the 'Bitcoin reserve plan', Metaplanet's buying will also continue.
The company's CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that the goal this year is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by leveraging its "most value-added capital market tools" to promote Bitcoin adoption in Japan and globally and "expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem."
Gerovich stated: "We are not just creating a company; we are pushing a movement."
In contrast to the continuously growing buying power, the "selling force" has also eased considerably after entering 2025.
Selling pressure eases: The inflow to exchanges and outflow from miners have both decreased.
As a major source of selling pressure, inflows to exchanges and outflows from miners have traditionally been seen as reliable indicators and have recently significantly decreased.
Since November 2024, BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have significantly decreased, indicating that selling pressure has eased.
Since November 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows (the total amount of BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (the amount of BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have significantly decreased, indicating that selling pressure has eased. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC exchange inflows peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, after about two months of highly active exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, BTC exchange inflows decreased but remained considerable, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day.
The decrease in exchange inflows coincides with a decrease in miner outflows, indicating reduced selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell their BTC holdings to cover operating costs. Since the historic price surge of Bitcoin following Trump's election in November last year, miner outflows have been declining.
CryptoQuant data shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, at which point the Bitcoin price reached about $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, on January 2, they sent 5,748 BTC, and on January 3, they sent 2,133 BTC.
The macro and micro prediction game: cautious optimists and highly optimistic factions each have their say.
As for the macro-level predictions for the cryptocurrency market and individual views at the micro level, cautious optimism and high optimism coexist at present. Some traders believe that one should "sell for profit in a timely manner, securing gains on short positions."
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from holidays, and market activity is recovering.
On January 3, Greeks.live researcher Adam stated: "20,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69 and a maximum pain point at $97,000, with a nominal value of $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.81 and a maximum pain point at $3,400, with a nominal value of $710 million. Today marks the first weekly options expiration of 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring, and European and American users gradually returning from their holidays, leading to an overall recovery in market activity. However, this week's theme remains adjustment, and the market shows a clear divergence, with no sustained hotspots yet. "
Later this month, Trump is about to officially take office as the new President of the United States, and the overall market outlook for 2025 is very optimistic. However, the recent significant pullback in U.S. stocks has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market, and it is highly likely that this month's interest rate meeting will maintain the current rates without cuts, with no additional positives for the market in the short term.
U.S. investment bank's view: It is expected that by the end of the year, BTC market cap will reach a quarter of gold, and BTC price will break through $220,000.
U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright predicts that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin will reach $225,000, meaning Bitcoin's market cap will reach $4.5 trillion, accounting for about 25% of gold's market cap.
Finance professor: U.S. supportive regulations will boost BTC, and a price reaching $200,000 is entirely possible.
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex in the UK, believes that a Bitcoin price of $200,000 is possible. Carol Alexander stated, "I am more optimistic about 2025 than ever before," adding that Bitcoin's price "could easily reach $200,000, but there are no signs that volatility will decrease." Alexander clarified that she does not actually own any Bitcoin. "By next summer, I expect its trading price to fluctuate around $150,000, plus or minus $50,000." Supportive regulations in the U.S. will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to lead to volatility, as high-leverage trading will cause price fluctuations.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good record in predicting Bitcoin prices, having predicted last year that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, which indeed came true.
Mining industry practitioners: Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, but there may be occasional sharp pullbacks.
Chief economist Youwei Yang of cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM) predicts that Bitcoin's price will be between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he remains cautious, believing that price pullbacks may occur.
He pointed out: "Bitcoin may experience significant upward momentum and occasional sharp pullbacks in 2025. During market shock moments, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily fall to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which aligns with historical cycle patterns and the trend of increasing mainstream institutional investment in cryptocurrencies."
Ledn CIO: Predicts BTC will hit $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year.
Ledn CIO John Glover stated that Bitcoin may drop to $89,000, then rebound to reach $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover stated that since then, Bitcoin might pull back to $100,000 again, and then hit $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026. This prediction is more conservative than the $180,000 and $200,000 forecasts from asset management firms VanEck and Bitwise.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound trend, possibly climbing to $105,000 in January.
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin may climb to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, "We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a series of different asset classes. We predict that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000."
On January 20, the inauguration of President Donald Trump may become an important catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new U.S. government include more favorable regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies and improved U.S. economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a price increase in cryptocurrencies. "We expect the new U.S. government to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe the inauguration itself will become a significant price increase event; rather, it will lay the foundation for cryptocurrencies to have fewer barriers in the U.S."
Placeholder partner: Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated: "Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong and will soon rise again."
Additionally, he supplemented that, similar to previous trends, meme coins in the past few weeks have also become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
Founder of 1confirmation: Countries are expected to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings.
Founder of 1confirmation Nick Tomaino stated that it is very likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:
- Issuing government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.).
- Using bonds to purchase cryptocurrencies.
- Repaying loans on time based on loan terms.
At the same time, it stated that the question is not whether countries will do this, but what kind of cryptocurrencies they will purchase, possibly starting with BTC, but the next could be ETH. Any sufficiently decentralized currency could participate, and the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Negative bearishness and profit-taking: Mature views from well-known research institutions and well-known traders.
Compared to the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the market's views on ETH and altcoins are relatively rational. Here we present some more representative opinions.
10x Research: It is expected that ETH's performance in 2025 will again lag behind BTC, and does not have high hopes for the Pectra upgrade.
Recently, Markus Thielen, head of market research at 10x Research, stated in a recent market report: "While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve meaningful rebounds in 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it remains a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH's performance in 2025 to again lag behind BTC. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'avoid.'"
Thielen stated that one of the key indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he noted that the one-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, decreasing by about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen stated that the increase in unstaking seems "logical"; he believes that Ethereum lacks "real demand" outside of staking.
He also mentioned that last March's Ethereum Duncan upgrade (which reduced network gas fees and allowed it to handle more transactions) was "six months late" and missed the peak of the meme coin surge, leading the market to "shift" towards more cost-effective alternatives like Solana. He is also skeptical about the upcoming Pectra upgrade set for early 2025, stating, "Of the 19 upgrades so far, only two have had a significant positive impact on ETH prices, and those upgrades occurred during Bitcoin bull markets." He added, "The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have mostly failed, resulting in no added value overall."
Senior trader: Trump's inauguration could be a key trigger for the resurgence of bullish sentiment in the crypto market.
Senior cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that there may not be significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market until Trump's inauguration on January 20. He speculated that this political event could become a key trigger for the resurgence of bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, mirroring previous election cycle market behaviors. Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin often rises after a new U.S. president takes office. After President Biden's inauguration in 2021, Bitcoin rose by over 100%. Similarly, significant breakthroughs in Bitcoin occurred around the inauguration in 2017.
Despite these observations, he also acknowledged that if the stock market (especially the S&P 500) continues to rise, his predictions might be overturned. He emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, indicating that sustained strength in the stock market could bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that there are about two weeks until Trump's inauguration, and the market shows a general rise in Trump-related concept coins.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months.
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data indicating: "In the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530."
Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may signify more retail investors exiting the market, leading to a further concentration of BTC chip holdings.
Trader Eugene: As the bull market enters the second half, a better strategy is to cash out frequently.
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that as we enter the second half of this cycle, the strategy should be to sell more frequently rather than hold long-term.
