By Franklin Suárez
The unpredictability of the global market is a complex issue, as financial markets are subject to a large number of variables and factors that can influence their behavior.
There are tools and techniques that allow us to anticipate the course of these assets and analyze their future behavior. By considering the external factors that govern the market, such as the global economy, monetary policies, and geopolitical events, we can develop models and strategies that help us navigate this uncertain environment.
In this case, we will focus on Bitcoin.
Here we have the Bitcoin chart from 2010 to today on a monthly timeframe.
What we all know is that we move in cycles driven by the halving, and in fact, this year will be the shortest period to reach its ATH of the 2024 halving before this cycle ends. Furthermore, it could finish earlier than expected.
In the monthly chart, Bitcoin is always against the marked resistance that it struggles to overcome. What happens is that when placing Fibonacci extensions on the chart, (we see in the graph) at the minimum of 2017 and 2018, where a maximum of the previous cycle is observed down to the minimum of the bearish cycle.
If we observe the first bullish cycle, it clearly shows us the extension of the Fibonacci block 1. The Fibonacci hold pocket, the hard cycle lasted approximately 365 days. And if we project the same extension with Fibonacci, it would clearly indicate the new ATH.
This zone would be between $180,000 and $190,000, which shows us the probability of reaching these historical highs this year.
Now, when do I think it will reach this zone?
Is there urgency to reach this zone?
Yes, because something is coming that could affect the entire market in the second half of the year. What we can determine is that this cycle is not going to be very normal.
The last two cycles reached their maximum ATH in 2017 and 2020, achieving their goals in about one year. Since February 29 until today, we have taken 300 days, so according to my assessment, we should hit the ATH ceiling between April and July.
Why do I say this date? Remember that risk assets behave very poorly, and Bitcoin has never experienced a recession. Bitcoin was created in 2009, and the last recession was in 2008. What could be similar was during the COVID era, where BTC had a 58% drop, although its recovery was quick. But we still experienced that crash, and it's the only reference of a global recession where BTC was affected.
If we want to see this cycle completed, we need to hurry to reach that ATH on the date I mentioned.
Let's look at the future resistances with the Fibonacci extension: 122,000, although it is not the most important. The zone between $146,000 and $150,000 will be a zone of much resistance, where we will likely have significant drops, and then the resistance zone of its ATH.
Let's not forget that in the $88,000 zone there is still liquidity to be picked up, and the behavior of these months suggests a retest of the $88,000 zone. To begin with, the range I already explained...
What do you think, my Binance family, could happen with Bitcoin?
This is not investment advice, just draw your conclusions to debate the possible scenarios.
