January 2025 - the month of potential lows for the ETH/BTC pair according to our indicator.
Let us remind you that there can be up to three such signals in a row before a reversal, meaning that in theory, the ETH to BTC rate could decline in January, February, and March. But the reversal could happen in January.
Regarding the targets of the current sustainable downtrend - only the first target has been achieved so far, the second and third have not. In the previous uptrend on the monthly timeframe, all three targets were achieved. Overall - the price is in a reversal zone.
Previous such signals were in December 2023-January 2024, but they experienced a break, which happens very rarely. Technically, a strong resistance was the EMA 50 on the monthly timeframe. Currently, this resistance is at the level of 0.05248 BTC. From the current rate, this is an increase of almost +45%. We expect that the approach with a test of this resistance will be quick.
We will separately show a chart with important volume levels and trend lines.
In the decline that the price has shown since last autumn, important trend supports from 2016 and 2017 are being tested. The most crucial volume level is 0.03128 BTC, which was almost tested in mid-November 2024. The key trend resistance remains - descending since September 2022. We have set an alert on it as the nearest important one. Its breakout will likely mark the start of parabolic growth for ETH with 'candles of God'. Further important breakouts will follow:
- an ascending trend line from December 2019 to January 2022 (the price went down under it on August 5, 2024, on the Japanese 'Black Swan').
- a global descending trend line since June 2017 (those who love to bury Ethereum will say that it will never happen, but we expect a breakout at worst in the spring).
The situation will begin to develop much more dynamically when breaking the level of $0.04106. The range of $0.04106-$0.05454 is a range for rapid movements.
For now, we have set signals on our indicator for a transition to a sustainable uptrend on the daily and weekly timeframes.
On the daily timeframe in the second half of 2024, the pair had excellent achievement of downtrend targets that began on July 5 and ended on November 8, resulting in a movement of more than 30% with the achievement of all additional targets. We expect that the transition to a sustainable uptrend on the daily will not only signal an exit from the consolidation that has been ongoing since November but also signal a full reversal.
We will analyze the #ETH to USDT rate separately. For now, let us remind you that we expect the probable high for Ethereum in this cycle in May-July. Even in the worst-case scenario for altcoin reversals of the ETH/BTC pair in April, it is not a scenario that cancels active growth of altcoins. In the previous cycle, the main part of the bull run for this pair lasted only 2 months, April-May 2021, when the price increased by +152%. At the same time, the ETH/USDT pair showed a much more extended bull run, for most of 2021. For example, the same #SOL showed its main growth in the previous cycle, at +640%, in August-November 2021.
We will separately emphasize - when we say we expect a high in the cycle for many altcoins in April-July - it does not mean that we expect a 100% reversal there. We will simply be ready to sell during this period if there are pronounced signs of reversal and weakness of buyers for the asset. Of course, we will orient ourselves according to the situation.
