Bitcoin performed well over the weekend, not continuing to fall, and the market has chosen a slow upward trend, slowly returning to 100,000 in a few days. Many bloggers have been saying that this is just a bounce and not a reversal. Their understanding of 'reversal' is a one-sided rise, stabilizing at 100,000 and continuing to surge without any drop. I believe this understanding of reversal is narrow or even incorrect.
Some people often predict that it would be great if Bitcoin could pull back to 84,000 for entry. However, for short-term trading, this is extremely easy to miss out on and can easily mislead bears into holding positions expecting 84,000, while if it rises above 100,000 again or even reaches new highs later, those bears who shorted at low levels would be panicking.
I believe that every time BTC pulls back to around 90,000, we shouldn't talk too much about bearishness down to 80,000-70,000. BTC has repeatedly held above 90,000 without breaking down, then surged back to 96,000/97,000, stabilizing at the center of 95,000. A breakout above 97,200-97,700 would indicate a reversal, as breaking through this level would immediately lead to 98,200-98,800. Once the pressure at 98,200 is digested, it will push towards 100,000 and beyond.
Many fans have asked me how Bitcoin will perform this week, and I will analyze it from the aspects of USDT + USDC supply, Bitcoin ETF inflow, Bitcoin premium index, Bitcoin trading volume, and macro data.
(1) USDT + USDC Supply
Since January 2, the supply of USDT + USDC in the crypto market has increased by 1.7 billion coins. In the past 24 hours, the supply of USDT + USDC has increased by 240 million coins, but the trend of improving liquidity is very clear.
(2) Bitcoin ETF Inflow and Outflow
Bitcoin ETF buying has strongly revived, with the net inflows of four significantly indicative Bitcoin ETFs - FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC - being $108 million and $650 million respectively over the last two trading days.
(3) Bitcoin Premium Index
The buying interest in the US has also recovered, and the discount on Bitcoin on Coinbase is nearly gone. Optimistic expectations regarding Trump's upcoming inauguration have recently dominated the crypto market, making it quite likely for BTC to continue rising in the short term.
(4) Bitcoin Trading Volume
Since December 31, the trading volume of BTC has been relatively low, which indicates that the buying interest is not strong enough. Therefore, it's highly likely to continue rising in the short term, but the possibility of directly breaking above previous highs is low.
(5) Macro Data
There is a lot of macro data this week, which may lead to volatility; I suggest treating it as a pullback and focusing solely on the entry and exit points. From Wednesday to Friday, be quick to switch positions; if there is a sudden drop early Thursday, a significant rise will inevitably follow on Friday evening.
There are still two weeks until Trump takes office. Today, Congress certified Trump's victory, and on January 20, Trump will officially be inaugurated. During this period, there are positive expectations, and starting from January 20, once the positive news materializes and begins to pull back, it would be wise to sell on the highs.
Altcoins will still focus on Trump-related concepts or derived Trump-themed coins as the short-term speculative direction. Trump-themed coins continue to surge, with TREMP, MAGA, and FIGHT showing particularly clear trends, having risen between 50%-100% since the 2nd. Rapidly expanding the bottom range, they have momentum and are expected to operate with a tenfold increase in the next two weeks. To speculate, one must learn to leverage short-term momentum and inertia; be bold!
Sector of Tenure: RSR, ZRX, DYDX, HNS
Trump Sector: AAVE, ONDO, LINK
Grayscale Sector: LTC, BCH, ZEN
Payment Sector: XRP, XLM, ADA, AGLD
Musk Sector: DOGE, PNUT
#币安MegadropSOLV
