At the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin faced a wave of sell-offs from U.S. investors, casting a shadow over the once-booming market. After the U.S. elections in November 2024, the Bitcoin index soared to 0.14, indicating strong selling pressure. However, the index subsequently plummeted to **-0.22**, marking the lowest level in the past 12 months, which undoubtedly shows that U.S. Bitcoin investors are massively liquidating their positions.
Although Bitcoin's price is currently trading around $96,750, with a slight increase of 2.06% in the past 24 hours, whether this upward momentum can be sustained remains uncertain. If U.S. investors continue to sell BTC, the cryptocurrency's price is likely to decline further, and the possibility of breaking below the $95,000 barrier is increasing.
Another key indicator supporting this view is the price-active address divergence. This metric assesses the relationship between user interaction and price fluctuations to gauge market sentiment. A positive value indicates increased user engagement, which is a bullish signal for cryptocurrencies, while a negative value suggests a decline in user participation, signaling a potential price drop. Currently, the price divergence of Bitcoin has decreased to 231%, reflecting a weakening of market activity. If this trend continues, the likelihood of BTC trading prices falling below $95,000 will significantly increase.
From a technical analysis perspective, the future trend of Bitcoin is also not optimistic. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is an important technical indicator that predicts market direction by measuring the trend's direction relative to price changes. When the EMA slope is above the price, the trend is downward; when the price is above the indicator, the trend is upward. Currently, Bitcoin's price is below the 20EMA (blue), indicating that the value of the cryptocurrency may continue to decline. If Bitcoin fails to break above the 20EMA and selling pressure continues to increase, the price may further drop to $85,851.
However, the market is always full of variables. If U.S. investors suddenly increase their buying pressure on Bitcoin, the entire trend could reverse. In this scenario, Bitcoin's price is expected to regain stability and potentially rise to $108,398. Therefore, despite the current dire situation, the future trend of Bitcoin remains uncertain, and investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and manage risks effectively.
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