Actually, both bulls and bears have their basis, which will be discussed separately below.
Bullish perspective:
In previous bull markets, daily pullbacks have always marked the bottom, followed by significant rises and new highs.
Referencing the above chart, it can be seen that after each bull market halving, there has been a pullback at the current position. In terms of timing, comparing the 17 bull market and the 21 bull market, the pullback time has just been completed, and the next phase will be substantial gains.
Alright, the bullish perspective is only supported by the historical evidence above.
Below are the bearish perspectives:
Bearish rebuttal:
In the past, there have been major bull markets, often with several times the gains, so a daily pullback has usually retreated at least 30% or more. Currently, it has only retreated less than 16%, far from reaching the minimum requirement for a washout. Assuming a minimum pullback of 20%, that would be down to 86.
Bears present their bearish arguments:
1. Liquidity
The above chart shows that global liquidity is tight, and there hasn't been any significant influx of funds into the stock market. Therefore, the funds flowing into the stock market are naturally limited. From the liquidity perspective below, although it includes part of the U.S. stock market liquidity calculations, it still cannot support a major bull market. Further washout is needed while waiting for loosening policies. Substantial improvements were only seen in February and March after Trump took office; otherwise, it was all speculation.
2. Technical Analysis
The three-day line is converging and is nearing completion. Historically, after the convergence of the three-day line, it generally hits the lower track. If it were a major bull market, it wouldn't wait for the three-day line to converge and would continue to rally until it hits the top, responding to the three-day line with a constant upward slope, not convergence. Therefore, it currently does not support a major bull market, but rather a phased upward movement.
3. Metaphysical Analysis
Looking at the Qimen, the performance in January hasn't been good, suggesting continued downward pressure for a washout.
In summary, everyone understands both bullish and bearish perspectives, so do you see it as bullish or bearish?