Golden Finance reported that Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year from 100 basis points to 75 basis points, stating that the reports on the rebound of core inflation have been greatly exaggerated. The annualized core PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% for the previous three months, but lower than the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, still in line with the ongoing decline. The report also indicated that the adjusted average PCE inflation by the Dallas Fed from September to November last year was 2.4%, with November last year at 1.8%. As the labor market tightens back to 2017 levels, the annual rate of wage growth has slowed to 3.9%, within a range of 3.5% to 4%. If productivity growth is between 1.5% to 2% in the coming years, it will align with 2% inflation. Goldman Sachs also assumes that the average tariff rate on U.S. goods from China will be raised by 20%, and that tariffs will be imposed on European cars and Mexican electric vehicles, expecting an increase in inflation of 0.3% to 0.4% next year. However, this impact should dissipate after one year unless there are significant second-round effects through wages or inflation expectations. This would make it comparable to the VAT increases that have repeatedly occurred in other G10 economies, where VAT increases usually do not have a lasting impact on inflation or monetary policy. Additionally, the tightening of the financial environment due to the trade war from 2018 to 2019 was sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to ease its policy, believing that the monetary policy risks brought by tariffs are at least two-sided. (Golden Ten)