I recently published a post that had the following thought:
All the major global market movements in recent years can be summed up in one phrase - the flow of capital from the 140 trillion debt market to the 110 trillion stock market, the 18 trillion gold market...
And the 3 trillion cryptocurrency market.
There is a constantly growing need in the world for an internationally neutral asset. Is that you, bitcoin?
I would like to explain this thought as simply as possible.
Since the reaction made it clear that not everyone understood HOW IMPORTANT this is.
So,
Please, a few minutes of your time, and your understanding of market economics will reach a new level.
Simplistically, states and structures like the Federal Reserve, as well as the largest banks in the world issue debt obligations, selling which and promising returns attract funds that can be specifically directed to sectors of the economy that need financing.
For this reason, government debt is formed, for example. Collecting free funds from the population and redirecting them to the needy sector of the economy, literally to the necessary companies.
All global financial movements are the flow of funds from the debt market to the stock market, gold, cryptocurrencies, etc.
The share of the cryptocurrency market today in the global economy is about 3 percent, if we take the estimate of global GDP at 110 trillion dollars.
So,
This figure is ridiculous.
Even today, analytical materials are being released by agencies and banks that predict the share of cryptocurrencies in the economy will grow to 15-17% approximately in 2033-35.
If we take today's figures, it is a growth of the cryptocurrency market by 5-6 times in the next 10 years.
But
The volume of global debt and GDP will also grow, just as the value of the dollar will decrease.
The real figure will be even higher.
And you might ask: what are the real reasons for the growth of this market? Who will need to bring an insane amount of money here?
I will answer you not only with arguments.
And as an example of an already existing sphere that has been inflated to insane values for CENTURIES.
The gold market (capitalization of 17 trillion versus 3 trillion of the cryptocurrency market).
Decide for yourself:
What is gold? Industry, state reserves, and the jewelry sector. I will highlight it as a stable asset, a refuge from inflation in the financial sector.
In global industry today, up to 20 percent of the world's gold reserves are involved. That is, only 1/5. About 3/5, 60 percent is involved in jewelry - this is an industry of cartel agreements, artificial prices, and speculation that dictates the price to the buyer. The remaining 20 percent is presumably held in the vaults of private and state banks.
The figures are conditional, an average of data from various analytical agencies. Are you used to precise statistics? The cryptocurrency market has trained you to expect this, where the figures for capitalization and total turnover are transparent and accurate. In the case of gold, we are talking about a sphere that is extremely opaque, where the real state of affairs is hidden from the population. In particular, there is no publicly available information about the exact volume of gold reserves in several countries.
In fact, most of the world's gold reserves are not used in production.
The gold market has a number of disadvantages compared to the cryptocurrency market.
Cryptocurrency can be instantly sent to any point on the globe. Transporting gold is an extremely costly and complex process, for which special procedures and tools have been created to avoid.
Most popular cryptocurrencies offer new technological solutions in various fields. Accordingly, investments in cryptocurrency are the creation of a new product, new technology, optimization, and transformation of familiar industries, etc.
Investments in gold are money that stimulate the criminal practice of gold mining in Africa, the growth of the monopolized jewelry sector, the sales of which are entirely ensured by marketing and consumer imposition.
The only real advantage of gold over crypto is its widespread acceptance, low volatility, and good liquidity.
Compared to regular money, gold looks extremely attractive.
But let's not forget that all these advantages of gold are only because it has existed much longer than cryptocurrencies.
The cryptocurrency market is a market of the high-tech era and efficient solutions. It is the web3 market.
The gold market is a market of the era of slavery and piracy.
Effectiveness over distance beats tradition.
Instead of results.
My expectations, based on the above:
Over the next 5 years, the cryptocurrency market will grow at least 5 times and become comparable to the gold market.
Leading tokens will multiply in price (btc, eth...)
The widespread acceptance of cryptocurrency and the solution of regulatory issues is inevitable in the near future.
The emergence of new cryptocurrencies that will replace traditional financial instruments.
The emergence of a cryptocurrency that will claim the niche of gold (a low-volatility deflationary instrument).
I answer questions in the comments, I accept suggestions for posts. Don't hesitate if you need another post on this topic. I tried to convey the essence briefly.