BTC and the overall market are moving sluggishly, and many people do not know how to act. At this time, patience is still needed. Small fluctuations can lead to small operations or grids to gradually reduce costs while awaiting new trends and directions. No market will continuously surge or plummet; the consolidation period is the norm, and during consolidation, one should have strategies for consolidation. Note that I focus on several mainstream assets; in the process of sideways movement, the platform remains a relatively good target. This video serves only as a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
First, the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate and consolidate between 92000-96000. In the absence of major news, it will likely just oscillate within this range. Without significant market movements, one can manually buy low and sell high to lower the cost, but be careful not to use the entire position—just a small portion will do to avoid missing out.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 680-730. This 63rd airdrop will end in 1 day. Generally, it will cause price fluctuations, but since there is a megadrop project coming up, the support should be sufficient, and significant volatility is not expected. However, note that participation in the megadrop requires holding a fixed deposit or completing tasks.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3250-3550, with institutions increasing their holdings again. The current price matches the maximum pain point data very well. Unless there is significant volatility in BTC, it is expected to continue consolidating around the current level within the next 24 hours.
Regarding the stablecoin: There are no special market movements; it is also waiting for the market direction or signal.
From the news perspective, Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicts that Ethereum will struggle to rebound in 2025, and ETH's performance may lag behind BTC again due to a lack of demand outside of staking, as well as skepticism towards the upcoming Pectra upgrade.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers believes that cryptocurrencies are beneficial for modernizing the financial system but should be regulated appropriately. This contrasts with the view of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock, who believes that cryptocurrencies have no role in the Australian economy. The Russian government has announced a complete ban on cryptocurrency mining in ten regions starting from 2025 and will partially restrict mining during the heating season. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that the number of regions banned from mining may increase.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From BTC's K-line perspective, the 4-hour line did not show an upward trend last night; it merely widened the downtrend channel. Overall, there is not much volume, and the daily line also lacks directional sense. It is expected to continue consolidating around the current point.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 66, which indicates greed, similar to yesterday. A bullish market consolidation within the range of greed is normal.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0105%, and for ETH, it is 0.0089%, which is basically within the normal range, indicating a relatively balanced power between long and short positions.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options within the next 3 months: The next 3 days are expected to be between 93000-97000, and there is not much action tonight, with market makers lacking motivation to drive the price down.
5. Regarding spot ETFs, BTC spot ETF increased by 57 last night, and ETH spot ETF increased by 10,700, which is basically a stabilizing state.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently strong on a weekly basis, maintaining neutrality over 24 hours. It is neutral on a weekly basis and maintains neutrality over 24 hours, similar to yesterday, relatively normal, with no significant selling pressure.
7. From the peak-escape index, it is currently in the lower-middle range, which also indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has fallen to 1.28. It's slightly higher than yesterday. Those with patience can continue to wait, and those who want to hold can accumulate a small amount.
Overall judgment: A sideways market is not suitable for full positions or over-leveraged positions. Manually buying low and selling high or using quantitative grids is the most comfortable way. Reducing costs and increasing profits while comfortably earning a certain profit during slight fluctuations is the way to go.