Today is January 1, 2025, and we are officially concluding the market of 2024, welcoming the new market of 2025. I hope everyone, regardless of how much profit you made or if it was underwhelming, learns from the patterns of each major rise and fall, including trigger points. During the consolidation phase, spend time reviewing and solidifying your trading position system to go further. I also hope everyone can achieve the goals they set when they entered the cryptocurrency market, as 2025 may see the craziest bull market in cryptocurrency history!
Back to the market, the yearly and monthly lines have already closed. In the short term, Bitcoin will likely oscillate around the 95,000 to 92,000 range. From recent trading volumes and trends, many people still view the new month’s market with a skeptical mindset. The main reason is that the US stock market has seen many declines recently, so the short-term market is still led by the US stock market.
Ethereum is also frequently testing the support at 3,300. If it doesn’t break below effectively, altcoins are temporarily safe. Currently, the market trend is waiting for a news trigger or a catalyst. Many friends may feel that there’s nothing interesting now and that the lack of major fluctuations has diminished their trading motivation. Such market conditions are quite normal. After significant rises and falls, there will be subsequent corrective oscillation K-line trends, which are experiences that must be endured.
Next, looking at capital inflows, the Bitcoin ETF data shows a net inflow of 5.3 million USD. Although it’s not much, a net inflow is a good sign, especially considering the recent outflow during the market adjustment. Ethereum’s ETF data shows a net inflow of 36 million USD. Although it still hasn’t balanced out the data from yesterday's outflow, it’s still a decent signal. While the inflow isn’t large, if it can be maintained for a few days, I believe the market during the domestic Spring Festival won’t be too bad, so everyone must stay alert and seize this opportunity!
In the new year, we need to know how to make money in the upcoming market:
1: Mindset. You must remain unfazed by BTC's fluctuations because BTC has now become a seesaw for capital. Often, BTC's rises and falls don’t significantly impact altcoins. Moreover, don't start to doubt whether the bull market is still here or if a bear market has arrived just because BTC experiences severe fluctuations. Asking such questions is meaningless. From the perspective of the altcoin season index, and before the benefits of the future market are realized, along with significant capital outflows, these short-term fluctuations are merely handover actions within the bull market.
2: Expectations, you must know what your expectations are for each spot trade, like 50% or doubling, or even five times. After setting these targets, see if the characteristics of this altcoin are worth betting for higher returns. If it’s not a new coin, look at the market value, including upcoming unlocks, and the roadmap of this altcoin. Are there any trigger points that could lead to performance in the market? Don’t only focus on the price trend of the K-line; this alone is not sufficient to justify a trade in this spot.
Trigger points: 1: Future benefits. 2: Celebrity/institution holdings. 3: Excessive enthusiasm for the sector's funds.
3: Positioning. This is a topic Crab Boss has often discussed. When the market is good, those who have doubled their investments should definitely take out their principal. During a downturn, only trigger point assets should be allowed to enter the base position, not all-in unless there is definitive positive news.
When the market is good, don’t waste your bullets chasing highs. Be steady, keep your stop losses in place, and implement them timely. You won’t lose much, and the next opportunity may be the one that allows you to recover double the amount lost at your stop loss.
Let’s talk about our views on the first quarter:
Firstly, for large amounts of capital, focus on the ETH ecosystem and DeFi sectors, such as UNI, AAVE, LINK, CRV, because the arrival of altcoin season must rely on ETH to lead the charge. Moreover, the net inflow of US Ethereum ETFs has recently begun. For smaller amounts of capital, pay attention to AI and MEME sectors, such as FET, WIF, PEPE, FLOKI. If there’s a new narrative, be sure to participate actively. Microstrategy’s purchases have decreased from over 10,000 large coins each time to just enough for over 2,100 this time. Market fees have also turned negative, and the greed index has dropped to 50, indicating the entire market is in an adjustment phase. However, as the saying goes, the waters of the spring river warm the ducks first. Recently, exchanges have begun to frequently list new projects. Binance's initial offerings are not over yet, and the next Solv is starting to launch Megadrop. Other exchanges also have some new listings. Exchanges are continuing to inject heat into the market, so we shouldn’t miss these opportunities. Engaging in hedging or lending strategies to participate in new offerings across exchanges is advisable. Once the market heats up, it will create a new starting point for the market!
The biggest narrative for the market in the next quarter will still be the ETH upgrade and the staking of ETH ETFs. Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have seen some outflows, but Ethereum ETFs have been experiencing net inflows, indicating that many institutions are starting to pay attention to Ethereum.
And the trend in the cryptocurrency market is something everyone is familiar with. After a spike, there’s a washout period of 1-2 months, and then it spikes again. So during the consolidation period, it's advisable to accumulate coins. Buy when there are low points and patiently await the gains brought by positive news.
Finally, let's see what news the market has in January:
On January 3, FTX's 16 billion funds began to be compensated.
January 10: Non-farm payroll
January 15: CPI
January 20: Trump's inauguration
January 30: Interest rate decision
Brothers, hurry and gather here!
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