The turning point is here! Is Solana ETF going to be approved? This time Wall Street is serious!
Ethereum upgrade will be delayed? Why is there still no news in 2025? Here are the latest developments, let’s take a look!
Bitcoin short orders amount to tens of billions. Are long positions in danger? Let's follow Shuqin to find out how the market will develop next.
First of all, Solana ETF has made big news again, and this time it is definitely not a gimmick, they are serious. Asset management giant Volatility Shares submitted Sol's futures leveraged ETF to the SEC last weekend, which is considered by the market to be Solana's first step into spot ETFs.
Because the listing process of ETFs is gradual, first listing futures and then spot. Before the approval of the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, they both obtained the approval of the futures ETFs.
For example, ProShares' Bitcoin futures ETF was approved in October 2021. The first Ethereum futures ETF was submitted by Valkyrie and approved in September last year. It can be said that futures ETFs are easier to pass and are the basis for transitioning to spot ETFs.
Therefore, the Solana futures ETF submitted by Volatility Shares is particularly critical. Moreover, this organization is no ordinary organization. It has previously successfully obtained approval for Bitcoin's futures ETF BITX and Ethereum's futures ETF ETHU, which can be said to be a brilliant record.
Therefore, the probability of Sol's futures ETF being approved is very, very high, especially if you take into account the major reshuffle of the SEC after the 20th, with all crypto-friendly people coming up. I think Sol's futures ETF will be approved in early next year, and then challenge the spot ETF in the second half of the year. These are all very likely positive factors.
The prediction market P站 is more optimistic. Currently, investors are betting that Sol's spot ETF has a 71% chance of being approved by the end of July next year. By then, Solana will likely rise by 20% a week when the final review date comes, because both BTC and ETH did so before approval, and even rose more.
Now that it is approaching the end of the year, many projects have released their New Year outlooks, including Polkadot and Ethereum, and their specific upgrade time has attracted particular attention.
Gavin Wood, the founder of Dot, said that Polkadot 3.0 is coming soon, and they are developing a protocol called JAM to build the first supercomputer in Web3. Anyway, the vision is as big as ever, but the price of Dot coin has not improved at all.
Because this coin can be issued unlimitedly, with an annual increase of 15%, but there is no destruction mechanism. So even though there is some buying pressure, the selling pressure is just as great, so the price of the coin cannot go up unless the issuance mechanism can be changed in the future.
Shuqin has repeatedly stressed that I will not touch coins with flawed token models, and buying these coins may miss the entire bull market. Although XRP and ADA are very old, at least they will not issue more, right? Buying them is better than buying Polkadot.
Okay, next let’s take a look at Ethereum’s outlook for 2025 and the upgrade schedule. This was published by Tim Beiko, the head of the Ethereum Foundation, and there are two articles in total.
I don’t think it’s necessary to talk about last week’s article, which is to say that after the Prague upgrade, there will be a Fusaka upgrade. This is the next narrative. Our focus should still be on the upcoming Prague upgrade.
Beiko said that the Prague upgrade will be the largest upgrade in the history of Ethereum. There are already 11 proposals that are expected to be included in this upgrade. Shuqin will not go into detail about what these 11 proposals are for. You can just take a quick look at them on the screen. In short, they can make Ethereum faster, stronger and more secure.
Shuqin feels that the most useful part is his last paragraph, which says that after the current fifth test network, there will be one or two more test networks, followed by fork testing and main network upgrades.
I think the time point is very clear. Each test network lasts about a month, and there are one or two more. This means that the preparations will be completed in January or February, and then there will be a month of fork testing and a month of main network upgrades. Therefore, Ethereum's Prague upgrade will be upgraded in March at the earliest, but it is likely to start in April, which may be delayed by one month compared to market expectations. But we can be sure that the upgrade will definitely come, and the increase will definitely come back, but it may be a month later.
Ethereum's upgrades usually start 2 months in advance, when the fork test is announced, so Ethereum's main uptrend starts around the end of January to the end of February, and then reaches a climax when it is upgraded in March or April. Therefore, Ethereum and its eco-coins AAVE, Puffer and Pepe will have good performance in the following market.
As for these news, Shuqin reads the first-hand news from the Foundation English instead of hearsay. This is the biggest difference between us and other channels.
Although the market has been fluctuating recently, we are constantly making arbitrage, like entering at 175 for Sol on the 22nd and at 0.17 for Pepe. We first escaped the top at nearly 200 on the 25th when Sol was close to 200, and escaped the top at nearly 0.2 for Pepe. AAVE escaped the top in the short term at 380, and then we took it back when it pulled back. Today these coins have risen again, and it’s so cool to buy low and sell high. We still maintain good profits in the relatively flat market during the holidays. The positions are updated every day, so you can take a look if you are interested.
The recent weakening of the cryptocurrency market can be said to have cultivated a large number of air forces. This month, the high short positions are two or three times that of the long positions, which is very rare in a bull market.
You see, the bulls basically have no chips to be liquidated, and they will be almost all exploded at 91 or 92,000. The dealer may make a final clearance, and after that there will be no long positions to be liquidated. The bears still have more than 10 billion of fuel, and 3 billion can be exploded at 98,000. If Bitcoin reaches 10,300, it can liquidate 8 billion short orders.
You have to know that short selling means selling in advance. After being hit, he can only be forced to buy back to close the short position, which will further push up the price and then hit more short orders. This is called a short squeeze in the stock market. I think the more than 10 billion fuel is particularly attractive to the banker. After raising so many short orders, it is time to kill them.
Wall Street will fully return in early January. At the same time, FTX will begin repaying $16 billion on January 3, and Trump and Musk will be inaugurated on January 20. I think these are all good news. Therefore, Shuqin is willing to give it a try. Even if we are trapped, as long as we get the Prague upgrade in March and April, we will turn losses into profits. So there is nothing to worry about. What do you think?
Finally, don’t forget to follow us, let’s achieve financial freedom together in this bull market!
