Bitcoin is oversold! The consolidation continues, but do not be pessimistic; patiently wait for a bullish trend:
In recent days, I have been talking about garbage time and fluctuating markets. Last night's sudden drop made some people wonder if the bull market has ended? Or if something has happened? Or even if there is a war?
In fact, this corresponds with the decline and rebound in the US stock market, so during this garbage time, without obvious positive or negative news, BTC will still have some correlation with US stocks, especially around holidays.
In yesterday's article, I illustrated the lack of liquidity and mentioned that weekdays wouldn't be much better. From the current perspective, it is very likely that this is the case; we are in a low tide of liquidity, and a bit of wide fluctuation is very normal.
So I still insist that in the absence of obvious positive or negative news, thinking that a rise indicates bullishness and a drop indicates bearishness may not be correct.
Current support indeed shows signs of starting to shift downwards. This point was mentioned yesterday, as we are currently in a low tide of liquidity, so we will not focus on the downward support for now. We will reassess this data after liquidity recovers next week.
Overall, I have been emphasizing that everything is driven by the trend cycle of BTC. In a rising trend, if you think BTC will rise next, then you should buy and hold on tight.
The trend of rising is definitely not smooth sailing: there will certainly be periods of extreme FOMO, high-level consolidation, followed by a continued rise, then high-level fluctuations, and finally a pullback, marking the end of one trend rise.
When you feel that the trend of BTC's rising phase has ended, you can choose to sell. And now, we can still expect Q1 of next year. So, we need to patiently wait through this temporary garbage time.
ETH is stronger than BTC; this kind of market is a common bottoming trend. Maintain a bullish mindset:
"Drawing doors and drawing U is a common method to shake out positions." Last night ETH played a whole night with door drawing and U drawing, causing significant shakeouts. But no levels were broken.
ETH starting to play this way also validates my guess about the intentions of ETH market makers:
This method is generally to prepare for the upcoming rise, on one hand, trying to shake out floating positions with a different technique, and on the other hand, testing the loyalty of the chips.
Unless there is a completely inexplicable crash or sudden panic selling that breaks the level, testing should not be a big problem.
In terms of capital data, there is also a bright spot: Ethereum, whether in terms of price movement or ETF inflow, is performing better than Bitcoin.
Last week, the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $349 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity purchasing 100,000 Ethereum.
This may be preparing for Ethereum's rebound in January. Historically, Ethereum has performed well in the first quarter over the past 8 years, such as 518% and 160% quarterly increases in 2017 and 2021 respectively. Considering the actual situation, and with the involvement of ETF channels now, we can't help but expect that Ethereum's first quarter this time may achieve even larger increases.
Now that we are at this critical point, we must hold on. The intentions of the market makers have been made clear, and we should not let go now.
Most altcoins are ready; those that needed to be washed out have been, and those that needed testing have been tested. They are all waiting for ETH. As soon as ETH is in place and starts to rise, altcoins will easily follow.
Bitcoin is oversold, altcoins are bottoming; this is a good opportunity for positioning on the spot:
In terms of operations, the spot has already begun to position and increase holdings:
Increasing USDT holdings is a very precious quality in a bull market. Waiting for an opportunity to buy the bottom or get in can lead to a surge; I believe the market will not disappoint your patience.
Let me emphasize again, the opportunity to buy on the spot is when the price is low enough, which will provide enough space for rising. The risk has now been released, so do not be afraid; just buy and wait for the rise.
Still the same saying, no rabbit, no hawk.
The pullback in a bull market is the best opportunity for adjusting positions and regrouping; during a broad rise, emotions are very high, and FOMO occurs. Only when emotions cool down can we find opportunities to think and plan.
I have said many times that Bitcoin is very important as it represents whether the overall cryptocurrency market is trending upwards or downwards; however, Bitcoin is also not important. Once it is confirmed that Bitcoin will definitely rise after a period, what assets can significantly outperform Bitcoin becomes crucial!