The market rhythm is proceeding as expected; the United States is still on holiday, Bitcoin is finding a bottom, and altcoins are fluctuating to build a bottom.
Why is there a decline?
There is currently no sign of new unfavorable news. The current price of Bitcoin fluctuating around 95,000 USD is quite normal, especially since after the elections, the lowest fluctuation range for Bitcoin came down to around 92,000 USD, and later it was all pulled up due to various favorable information. Therefore, fluctuations during the recent low liquidity period are also not unusual.
This indicates that current investors have completed the normalization of emotions during the holidays. Now, retail investors have sold off most of what they should sell, and bought most of what they should buy. In the absence of institutional and large capital intervention, the trading volume is limited to this. Unless new favorable or unfavorable stimuli occur, emotional buying or selling will happen again; otherwise, it is highly likely that the emotional state will remain in turbulence.
A comparison shows that the current trading volume has dropped to a very low level, comparable to the trading volume during the prolonged period of garbage fluctuation around 65,000 USD. Therefore, the current dumping and so-called manipulation by large players have little to do with it; it is all a PVP among Bitcoin holders under low liquidity. The actual price trend needs to wait for a recovery in periodic liquidity.
The current market depends on Bitcoin; awaiting Bitcoin to finish its adjustment, the takeoff is just around the corner:
My viewpoint is still that it will fluctuate around 95,000, and it cannot break 90,000. If it breaks, there will be panic selling.
A reminder posted on December 24th, the volatility has not yet ended, this kind of market is generally suitable for DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging), not suitable for chasing highs.
From the scanning of the market, it can be seen that many altcoins have already reached a comparable K-line structure; however, the current adjustment rhythm of Bitcoin is slower than that of the altcoins. We need to wait for Bitcoin to complete its full adjustment process and structure to fully release the overall market risk before the altcoins can truly surge.
Strategy: A pullback is the best opportunity to assess strong altcoins and the best chance for portfolio adjustment. I've said it countless times; I wonder if you have executed it?
There is no need to deliberately seek reasons for the pullback!
It has risen too much, the slope is too steep, the indicators are oversold; these are all things that must be digested, and a pullback is necessary for a better takeoff. Next time it rises, it will completely surpass the 100,000 hurdle.
Strategies currently being implemented:
1. Use Bitcoin to exchange for promising altcoins (from the perspective of coin denomination, there are more altcoins now);
2. No exchange for USDT, no reduction in positions.
Only when the altcoin season arrives, will the vast majority of retail investors have a chance to turn things around!
Because retail investors almost all hold altcoins, and do not have Bitcoin. If this round of bull market does not have an altcoin season, many retail investors will be in deep trouble; those who should deliver food will deliver food, and those who should dive into the sea will dive into the sea.
Many people's position allocations need adjustment. According to the ratio of Bitcoin, value coins, and altcoins, 5:3:2, one will definitely outperform the vast majority of people in the end!
I believe the bull market has not ended, and the altcoin season will still come, but what remains unknown is: can you hold on until the arrival of the altcoin season?
In the battle between bulls and bears these days, the outcome is still undecided; everyone should pay attention to risks and operate cautiously:
Refusing to be harmonious, the market seems calm at the moment, but there are undercurrents surging;
The best approach is to observe and wait for a chance to bottom out in the spot market or get on the bus. I believe the market will not disappoint your patience.
At this time, it is necessary to pay attention to trend trading; it is best to wait until it stands above before buying. Personally, I think if it doesn't stand above, there is a greater possibility of another drop; this is not being bearish, just a genuine expression of my view on the market.
My approach is also very simple: I will not open any contracts or leverage. I will not touch my long-term spot and staking positions, and I will clear short-term positions that I currently consider non-alpha projects, and try to increase my USDT holdings, waiting for an opportunity to enter.
Just eight words: the market is turbulent, pay attention to safety!