BTC still remains without a confident buyer, having set a low of $93,009 overnight. But there are arguments for growth from tomorrow:
1. The price found support on the ascending trend from November 17, which was tested by lows on December 20 and 23. Last time, good rebounds of +7.5-7.8% developed from this trend. Which ran into the same resistance - the volume level of $99,481. However, this time the situation is different in that there is no V-shaped reversal from the trend. This is a cause for concern.
2. If the reversal signals of our indicator on the 12-hour TF. If they provide growth with a breakdown of the downward trend from December 17 (currently at $95,600) - we can expect growth to the volume range of $97,553-98,433, and if it is broken - another test of $99,481, where everything will be decided. The chart showed the previous such signals in November-December. There were three signals, one of them was false.
The next 13 hours will be decisive. The low set for December 29-30 may turn out to be the start of growth, an important extreme.
On the BTC futures chart on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) after the weekend, the gap is $94,865-$95,225. By the way, on the younger 2- and 4-hour TFs, there is another gap higher, formed due to a sharp correction on Thursday-Friday. Its range is $99,310-$99,395.
But closing gaps determines the trend, and while it remains downward even on the 30-minute TF, there is no point in waiting for a closing.
For now, we are waiting for the price to show a stable uptrend on the 30-minute TF (in a downtrend since December 26) - the price will go to at least another test of the downward trend since December 17. But while the price is in a stable downtrend on this TF - the entire growth scenario voiced is not working. The transition to an uptrend on this TF should be an early signal for the start of growth.
On the very important 4-hour TF the trend also remains downward, let's recall the targets:
- Basic:
-- 91 953$,
-- 90 283$.
Additional:
-- 88 040$,
-- 84 929$.
Until the price closes above the Potential break level with the body of the 4-hour candle, $97,821 - achieving the goals of a sustainable downtrend is a priority. By the way, on the same 4-hour TF, for the first time since August 29, a "Death Cross" was formed - the EMA 50 line crossing the EMA 200 line from top to bottom. Crosses are a somewhat inert thing. But in the current situation, they also do not speak in favor of the bulls.
The signals of correction of the 4-hour TF and growth of the 12-hour TF are not mutually exclusive.#BTCstill has time to work out at least the basic targets of the 4-hour TF, while the reversal structure is being formed on the 12-hour TF. A new low in the decline since December 26 may well appear before the end of the day, and show a reversal candle there.
Our forecast of a decrease in volatility until January 1-3 continues to be worked out. We expect that the storm will start to be serious from these days.
