Stay Alert in Times of Peace

1. As the year comes to an end, the grand wave of layoffs has begun again. It's more expensive to lay off old employees, so new employees will likely be the first to go. It's unfortunate for those who were laid off at the end of last year to experience that pain again.

2. Even if you haven't been laid off yet, you can't laugh it off. Let's look at the following scenarios.

When you hear that Old Wang next door has been laid off, what are your thoughts for the day?

a. Smiling, relieved that you survived another day.

b. After returning home, you quickly calculate with your wife: the mortgage is 15,000, the car loan is 5,000, school fees for the kid are 10,000, daily expenses are 8,000, and you're thinking you really can't afford to be laid off again.

Most people's thought process is probably b.

3. What about the bosses? How do they think?

a. It's the end of the year, and I really don't know where next year's growth will come from. Maybe let's lay off a few people to save some money. They won't dare to say anything since the economy is bad.

b. Hang in there for the happiness of the family. Even if there are losses, we must protect everyone's jobs.

Most bosses probably choose a.

4. Looking back, most of the irreplaceable skills you've built have been debunked. For most companies, there are very few people and positions that can truly be irreplaceable. Reflecting on your own inadequacies is a process of self-criticism, but don't stop improving your skills.

5. Regarding expectations for next year, I, like Dean Lu, would give it a score of 120 points. You know the phone number, right?

6. The main reason is that in the last meeting, I really didn't hear about pillar industries. Last year there were new productive forces like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, but this year they have all stalled. I only heard about the Hainan Free Trade Port and AI, nothing else. It sounds like the company has lost its main business income.

7. However, I am optimistic about policy expectations. It's normal for policy expectations to contradict fundamental expectations. When fundamentals are declining, good stimulus policies are needed. But everyone, please stop just shouting slogans.

8. The market has entered a stage of fluctuation, and it's very likely to move in a range-bound manner. In a one-sided market, short-term profits are hard to come by, and in a fluctuating market, long-term profits are also hard to achieve. This is an opportunity to make money in the short term, so seize it well.