Summary of 2024

At the historic moment when Bitcoin broke through 100,000, the lackluster performance of altcoins was generally attributed to the lack of VC support and decentralized attributes. However, few people really noticed that in this market where there is still incremental capital, most of the funds actually flowed into leveraged betting transactions. This may be a direct consequence of the low threshold feature of Web3 leverage - in the past year, we have witnessed that leveraged trading of altcoins has remained active in a market environment with extremely shrinking trading volume.

For some people, this may seem unsurprising, but I would like to remind you that every time the market falls, the first thing to be repaired is not the price of Bitcoin or other altcoins, but the stock of leverage. This pattern has been repeated over the past year and has become a distinct but overlooked vein in the market.

2024 can be said to have witnessed the market from a stage without any anchor to a purgatory driven by "illusions". In this market, everyone and every behavior is a counterparty. A hundred years ago, the outstanding trader Livermore attributed his success to information asymmetry. Today, a hundred years later, in a market where information asymmetry is approaching zero, everyone thinks they are the modern Livermore.

Unlike the traditional commodity futures market, which has anchored information, such as supply and demand, inventory and macro data, which are the cornerstones of trading. In the crypto market, there is no such "anchor" at all. Market prices are no longer linked to any objective variables, but are built on the illusion of consensus. Everyone thinks they have mastered the rhythm of the market, but forgets that market fluctuations have no logic, they are just a projection of emotions.

Facing such a market, I pay high tribute to every "Livermore" in the 21st century. Your persistence, your belief in illusions, and your courage to pursue returns in an unanchored environment are all worth remembering. History may not repeat itself, but it always rhymes.

May everyone in the market in 2024 see the reality from this illusion and make their own true choice.

$BTC $ETH $SOL #btc #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥