Author: Scof, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Grading moment — this article takes you through a one-stop review of the popular predictions and actual performances in the crypto industry for 2024, seeing how many of the predictions made last year by top research institutions such as Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, and Pantera Capital have been fulfilled? After all, their predictions for this year have also been released.
Predictions are a battle of intelligence and vision, while the market gives answers with harsh reality. Get ready, let's take a look at the crypto world of this year!
❌ Represents that the prediction is incorrect or not completely accurate
☑️ Represents that the prediction is correct
⭕️ Represents that it is not entirely accurate and has room for discussion
Binance Labs
Related reading: (Binance Research Institute Annual Report: Eight key focuses for 2024)
2024 Predictions:
⭕️ The Bitcoin narrative remains at the forefront, with expectations that the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems will further develop.
☑️ Further development of decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin)
☑️ Further development of decentralized social media (DeSoc)
☑️ Increased integration of artificial intelligence (AI)
☑️ Growth of real-world assets (RWA)
❌ Liquidity management and request-for-quote (RFQ) systems are thriving
☑️ More institutions joining the crypto space
☑️ Account abstraction becomes increasingly important
Summary:
Overall, the market in 2024 has validated most of the Binance Research Institute's predictions, especially in terms of trends in AI integration, institutional participation, and the tokenization of real-world assets. Although the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as Ordinals and BRC-20, had a strong start in early 2024, it did not experience further development as imagined, with Bitcoin prices continually setting records while being forgotten by the market amid sector rotation. Additionally, the 'further development' of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is somewhat factual, with new stars like Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect entering the social track, while Friend.tech has fallen from grace and stagnated in development. Compared to other tracks, the development of decentralized tracks still faces many controversies and challenges.
Coinbase Venture
Related reading: (Coinbase 2024 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's dominance further strengthens, optimistic about DePIN and decentralized computing)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with institutional investment concentrated in Bitcoin
☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrencies
☑️ Web3 applications continue to develop, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users
☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions
☑️ The rise of decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing
☑️ Progress in regulation and legislation promotes institutional participation
☑️ More user-friendly experiences and technological innovations
Summary:
These predictions are generally consistent with current market dynamics, especially the dominance of Bitcoin and the increase in institutional investment, which has already manifested in 2024. Macroeconomically, due to the inauguration of the Trump administration and the realization of interest rate cut expectations, cryptocurrencies have gradually become investment targets for traditional institutions.
Coinbase's outlook for 2025 has been released —
Related reading: (Transformational Growth: Full Text of Coinbase's 2025 Bitcoin Crypto Market Outlook)
a16z
Related reading: (a16z 2024 Outlook List: Modularization, AI, Web3 Games...)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ Technological advancements improving user experience
☑️ Enhanced value of modular technology
☑️ The potential of AI and blockchain integration
☑️ Transition from 'play to earn' to 'play while earning'
❌ The popularity of NFTs as brand assets
❌ The maturity of SNARKs technology
Summary:
It is evident that a16z misjudged the development of NFTs this year. NFTs faced perhaps their darkest hour this year, as luxury NFTs peaked in brand assetization during the last bull market. Furthermore, compared to last year, the decline of Layer 2 and cross-chain bridges under the meme craze has resulted in very little discussion about project fundamentals and pure technology across the crypto market. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will continue to develop towards a more operable, participatory, and diversified direction.
a16z's outlook for 2025 has been released —
Related reading: (A16Z Outlook for 2025 Crypto New Trends: What industry transformations will AI, decentralization, and stablecoins bring?)
Messari
Related reading:
(Messari 2024 Investment Forecast: Pessimistic on ETH, optimistic on AI, DePIN, and DeSci new narratives)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ Optimistic prospects for emerging narratives
Messari holds an optimistic view on emerging narratives such as DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network), AI, DeSoc (Decentralized Society), and DeSci (Decentralized Science), while strongly favoring the integration of AI and cryptocurrency, believing these directions will continue to connect the Web3 concept with the social and technological domains of the real world.
❌ The development potential of DeSoc (decentralized social)
❌ Circle may go public in 2024
☑️ The rise of DeSci (Decentralized Science)
☑️ Bearish on Ethereum, as Ethereum lacks overwhelming advantages compared to Solana
Summary:
Messari, as a well-established investment research institution, has not disappointed, accurately hitting the 'AI agent' track which had multiple impressive performances this year, while also favorably viewing the DeSci track that had not yet become popular last year. Additionally, their speculation on Solana and ETH as the 'kings of public chains' has also been strongly validated by the market, with SOL's strong performance this year being evident, raising many questions about the subsequent bull market prices of the Ethereum system. Unfortunately, their judgment on DeSoc slightly deviated from the actual situation, as DeSoc has not successfully reproduced the enthusiasm of the 'DeFi Summer' like in 2022.
Messari's outlook for 2025 has been released —
Related reading: (Interpreting Messari's 2025 Outlook for the Crypto Industry: Bitcoin will perform better next year, the Meme trend will continue to be hot)
Pantera capital
Related reading:
(Pantera Capital: 2024 Crypto Outlook)
(Pantera Capital partners release six major predictions for the crypto sector in 2024)
2024 Predictions:
❌ The revival of Bitcoin and 'DeFi Summer 2.0'
☑️ The rise of tokenized social experiences
☑️ An increase in TradFi-DeFi 'bridges' like stablecoins and mirrored assets
☑️ The combination of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP)
❌ On-chain applications for computation-intensive applications
☑️ Integration and application chain models in the blockchain ecosystem
☑️ Areas worth noting in 2024 — artificial intelligence: integrating human and computer intelligence
Summary:
Like many other institutions, influenced by the strong performance of inscriptions and Bitcoin's Layer 2 narratives in 2023, Pantera Capital also misjudged the trend of the Bitcoin ecosystem. 2024 can be called a year belonging to Bitcoin (its growth far exceeds that of most altcoins), but even with good growth in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it cannot be labeled as 'DeFi Summer 2.0'. It is worth mentioning that as everyone realizes the significant profitability of the stablecoin business, TradFi-DeFi will see good growth in 2024. Additionally, like other institutions, Pantera also accurately predicted that AI would experience a major explosion and growth in 2024.
OKX venture
Related reading:
(OKX Ventures 2024 Outlook: Key Projects and 7 Major Predictions)
(OKX Ventures 2024 Bitcoin Outlook Report)
2024 Predictions:
⭕️ BTC scaling and application explosion, on-chain activity enhances network security
☑️ The Ethereum Cancun upgrade enhances Layer 2 usability, leading the industry forward
☑️ With Solana as an example, the Alt-layer1 ecosystem will benefit from industry recovery
☑️ The AI narrative tightly integrates with Web3 technology, leading to the emergence of new applications
❌ A new paradigm of blockchain games will emerge, focusing on FOCG (Fully Onchain Game) breakthroughs
☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high growth
☑️ The macro environment is improving, entering a new era of crypto
Summary:
Looking at the overall performance this year, OKX Venture's expectations for blockchain games are still overly optimistic. Projects under the FOCG paradigm have not shown significant growth, and GameFi remains just a slogan of 'easiest to attract traffic' without significant user growth. Additionally, the performance of DePin projects this year can only be described as passable, with some noteworthy projects, but the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues remain two major challenges to be solved. Overall, how the crypto sector attracts more users from Web 2 still has a lot of research space.
OKX Venture's outlook for 2025 has been released —
Related reading: (OKX Ventures Annual Report: 60+ Project Layouts and 14 Major Trend Outlooks)
Blockworks
Related reading:
(Blockworks' outlook for the 2024 crypto market)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ The rise of Solana:
Solana's market capitalization may approach or even surpass that of Ethereum and will produce significant wealth effects in the NFT and DeFi sectors.
Multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorn companies will emerge within the Solana ecosystem.
☑️ The evolution of Ethereum:
Ethereum's developer activity and connectivity will further strengthen, and the narrative will shift from 'supersonic currency' to other directions.
Ethereum's L2 technology will develop, but interoperability issues may still be unresolved in 2024.
❌ The prosperity of the NFT market:
NFTs will experience growth due to wealth effects and capital inflows, with some series (like Mad Lads) potentially reaching a floor price of $100,000 each.
JPEG investments will become an important trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.
☑️ The revival of Bitcoin:
The launch of Bitcoin's L2 will drive activity in DeFi and other ecosystems, potentially breaking historical highs.
Bitcoin ETFs may be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.
☑️ The future of DeFi:
The Solana and Ethereum ecosystems will welcome new DeFi projects and activities.
The popularity of staking may bring security and vulnerability issues.
☑️ Artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency:
AI-related tokens are expected to reach a frenzy peak in 2024, with a market cap potentially exceeding $100 billion.
The linkage between cryptocurrency and traditional markets:
❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution, with a valuation potentially exceeding $100 billion.
☑️ The United States will rise again as a center for crypto activity in 2024, alternating leadership in the market with Asia.
❌ The potential of gaming and social finance:
Gaming will become an important catalyst for retail participation in cryptocurrency. Social finance and music NFTs may become new hotspots in the market.
Blockworks' outlook for 2025 has been released —
(Blockworks co-founder’s 27 predictions for 2025: The U.S. becoming a crypto center, Base being Solana's main competitor)
Summary:
Blockworks' predictions for the 2024 crypto market have been partially validated. Solana's strong rise indeed aligns with the predictions, significantly increasing its market cap and bringing wealth effects in the meme sector. However, despite Solana's excellent performance in certain metrics, the prediction that its market cap may approach or surpass that of Ethereum has not been realized.
Although the NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half of the year, the anticipated 'JPEG wave' did not create a surge as expected, with only a few high-end NFT series successfully attracting considerable attention. AI-related tokens did spark a wave of enthusiasm, but many tokens still appear overvalued. The combination of AI and Crypto currently resembles a financing method rather than a true technological implementation, and there is still a considerable distance to true technological grounding. Moreover, despite increased activity in the DeFi sector, security issues related to staking have not exploded as expected, and the maturity of technology still requires further time for verification.
IOBC Capital
Related reading: (IOBC Capital: 10 Predictions for 2024)
2024 Predictions:
☑️ After the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, it could bring over $30 billion in incremental funds
❌ The total market value of inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem may reach 20B+, only truly Fair Launch leading MEME projects have medium to long-term consensus.
☑️ Bitcoin Layer 2 will experience rapid development, benefiting Bitcoin ecological applications and infrastructure.
❌ Ethereum Layer 2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer 1, potentially reaching over $100 billion
☑️ The TVL volume of ZK Rollup still cannot match that of Optimistic Rollup, but the zk modular components of Ethereum Layer 2 will become more complete.
☑️ Layerzero will issue tokens in the first half of the year, likely igniting the full-chain track
⭕️ The new narrative of Parallel EVM will drive secondary growth of chains like Sei v2
⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow tenfold
❌ There may be a hit Autonomous World / Fully on-chain games with strong social attributes
☑️ Star cases of AI and Crypto integration will emerge across multiple application scenarios
Summary:
IOBC Capital's predictions for 2024 are comprehensive and bold, but clearly this forecast is overly optimistic. The rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly continued the enthusiasm of last year's Bitcoin inscription ecosystem, but soon followed by the cruel reality of 'halving again'; numerous public chains in Ethereum Layer 2 did not gain user acceptance and the TVL remains significantly different from the Ethereum mainnet, with this year's highest TVL being $55.3 billion in December; Layerzero welcomed TGE mid-year, but the process was also fraught with difficulties. Due to the market downturn, despite the continued development of the full-chain track, it has not reached the desired climax; the DePIN track has indeed seen tremendous growth this year, but the prediction of a tenfold increase in market size is indeed somewhat optimistic, growing from $9 billion at the beginning of the year to about $25 billion by the end of the year (rough estimate).
HTX Venture
Related reading:
(HTX Ventures 2023 Annual Review)
2024 Predictions:
⭕️ Trading Innovation: The birth of mature trading bots and new trading infrastructure witnesses continuous innovation in trading mechanisms, suggesting more dynamic and efficient market interactions.
☑️ Layer 2 Evolution: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, fierce competition among Layer 2 solutions could lead to significant advancements in scalability and efficiency, further solidifying the critical role of this track.
❌ Web3 and X-Fi dynamics: The shift towards genuine Web3 projects (such as the success of platforms like Friend.tech) marks a more comprehensive approach, integrating social and gaming elements into the crypto space.
☑️ Integration with traditional finance: Discussions around Bitcoin ETFs and real-world assets (RWA), especially regarding the potential breakthrough of Bitcoin spot ETFs, highlight the increasing integration of traditional finance with the crypto industry, promising to mark a new era of market growth and mainstream recognition.
Summary:
Some of these predictions have been validated, especially in terms of integration with traditional finance. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly driven institutional capital inflow, enhancing market confidence, and the crypto industry is gradually being accepted by mainstream finance. However, trading innovations and predictions related to Web3 and X-Fi have yet to be fully realized. Despite some progress in the development of trading bots and new infrastructure, there has been no revolutionary change in market interactions; additionally, Friend.tech faced an embarrassing slump this year.
HTX Ventures' outlook for 2025 has been released —
(HTX Ventures Report: The current market is still far from the peak of the bull market and will continue to focus on Meme coins, AI coins, etc.)
Bankless
Related reading:
(Bankless: 2024 will be the year of AI + Crypto cycle)
(The six key crypto themes Bankless will focus on in 2024: LRT, DAO wars, parallel EVM)
☑️ EigenLayer breaks through $10 billion in TVL
❌ 1 million ETH will be burned
❌ ETH Layer 2 shifts towards optimized VM and parallel EVM
❌ Solana's downtime
Summary:
From the actual market situation, some of these predictions have been realized, yet they tend to be optimistic overall. EigenLayer's performance is indeed impressive, with TVL exceeding $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has gained high recognition from the market. However, the burning of 1 million ETH has not been achieved (as of press time, data shows that the burning amount in the past year is 472,000 ETH). Despite increased activity on the Ethereum network, trading volume and usage rates have not propelled the burning amount to expectations.
Regarding the development of ETH Layer 2, the current focus remains on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). The exploration of parallel EVM has sparked discussions but has not become the mainstream direction, indicating that this prediction has clearly overestimated the speed of technological transformation in the short term. Meanwhile, the prediction of Solana's downtime has not materialized. On the contrary, Solana has made significant progress in stability.
