Author: redphone

Compiled by: CryptoLeo, Odaily Planet Daily

redphone has always been one of my favorite crypto KOLs, and his content output is among the higher quality in the crypto KOLs I follow. In recent years, redphone has written an annual year-end review themed '69 Theses' each year, including self-reflection and future outlooks for the entire year in the crypto industry. Below are this year's 69 statements (slightly adjusted), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:

Three crypto themes for 2024

AI has invaded my brain, disrupting my thoughts.

I am a writer, and I have spent 10,000 hours honing my writing skills. But now, any 10-year-old on Earth can have Claude write relevant content in seconds. The skills I have spent a lifetime refining have now become a raw commodity. In other words, my life's work is equivalent to circulating commodities like oil, tape, or rope; what am I worth? Where do I come from? Where am I going? I am still trying to figure out the answers, and I will explore this further below.

'The ultimate big boss' is dead.

With the November elections, Americans chose Trump (orange man, note: orange specifically refers to Trump's skin color) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. I thought it would take longer, but now we have done it. The world's richest government has been infiltrated by loyal advocates of cryptocurrency. This means we have crossed the chasm; cryptocurrency is no longer a dream; it will become a fundamental part of business development. This moment is what we all look forward to, but it also means that the original, anti-establishment soul of cryptocurrency has died. Cryptocurrency is now a tool of anarchists and capitalism.

In 2024, the resurgence and prosperity of Solana.

I once thought Solana would cease to exist in 2021. Somehow, just three years later, it has become the blockchain I use the most (Base is ranked second, Ethereum third, and Bitcoin fourth). If there is any reflection here, it is: nothing is immutable. Our mindsets should not be fixed but open.

Now, let's look at this year's reflections:

Lessons and reflections from 2024.

1. Say something unexpected, like Fartcoin's market cap skyrocketing to $1.2 billion, grabbing everyone's attention: absurd and crazy. But I love that feeling, even though it leaves me feeling lost. As the nanny in the first season of 'Deadly Women' said one night: 'There is something abnormal or wrong going on.' Technology has liberated us from rational, social constraints. We are now entering an unknown and eerie new space, and this strange feeling begins to intensify here.

2. Our consciousness will be influenced by the evolution of tools. LLMs have changed my communication and learning patterns; I write faster, edit less, and expand more broadly. Similarly, I read faster and can ask LLMs for summaries of articles; if you don't adapt to tools, you'll fall behind.

3. Decentralized technology is not limited to the financial sector; this is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency that will spread to other fields: from cellular networks to power, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, when I made an alternative bathroom shelf using 3D printing technology, I deeply felt the benefits of technology. It is no exaggeration to say that even production tools are being decentralized.

4. The truth lies beneath all your fears; the truest words are often the most dangerous.

5. We must never let sweet talk cloud our judgment. With Trump's election and the true entry of TradFi into crypto, we enter a time when actual profits outweigh ideals, and cryptocurrency has entered a very dangerous era.

6. Hemingway once said that getting older does not increase wisdom, just makes one more cautious. When AI begins to disrupt our work, social lives, politics, and economy, the hardest thing to do is to be cautious; make everyone around you cautious, do anything you must do, and embrace uncertainty.

7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a real game, there must be losers. Perhaps you have failed in the crypto market 100 times; the best way is to start over for the 101st time, and you will achieve victory.

8. The matrix is everywhere; we just call it 'algorithms.' These algorithms trap us, looping, perceiving, searching, making us feel as if there is never enough time. If you avoid these obstacles, you can become the most special person on Earth: someone who explores deeply and does things with heart.

9. There is only one direction left: forward. Do not let anyone or anything force you to stagnate and accept the status quo. Transform, grow, and accelerate; this is our only chance.

10. Tokens symbolize our hopes and dreams; they are not just tools for value transfer but mirrors reflecting our hopes and dreams. We project our desires onto the founders, developers, and ecosystems, all of which are directly and closely related to the price of the tokens. When investing, remember that the biggest opportunities don't just appear in your thoughts; you must also feel them.

11. The future vision of Desci: robots on standby in laboratories, AI agents hiring them in real-time to run all inputs, parameters, and measurements of replicable experiments on-chain. Due to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of experiments and share their benefits in a timely manner.

12. The market is constantly encroaching on the world in front of us. The market's continuous expansion is no accident: prediction markets, gambling markets, meme coins, and the most interesting futarchy (Odaily note: futarchy is also a voting method related to beliefs. It was first proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000, aiming to use prediction markets to determine policy implementation to address the shortcomings of traditional democracy). If information is 'the fundamental building block of reality,' then pricing information is a way to measure the power of that information. People see the increasing number of markets as a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it's actually a sign of progress? Applying collective wisdom to what previously felt like random coin flips?

13. Reduce fear; fear occupies a large part of our hearts because it is vital to our survival, as it is in the wild. But in this clean, anesthetized, social media-driven simulated world we live in, it is almost meaningless. Recognize that algorithms are designed to provoke your fears; so when you feel fear, reduce your fear level (discount it); for example, if an article convinces you that the likelihood of a market crash is 40%, then divide that probability by 10 (or whatever number you feel appropriate) and consider it 4%.

14. Step behind the scenes. When I speak with AI critics, they almost always hold a reverent attitude towards human creativity. 'AI can never create something new because it is trained on the information we create.' Andy Ayrey's infinite backroom rebutted this notion. When he created a chat space for LLMs, the LLM invented a religion that attracted Truth Terminal, ultimately leading to the rise of GOAT.

15. As TradFi enters cryptocurrency, my identity has changed as well. For a long time, being in cryptocurrency was central to my identity. In the past year, this has changed dramatically. I now see cryptocurrency as one of many tools in the tech arsenal, with all tools beginning to converge. As cryptocurrency and AI collide, we are changing as well. We are no longer 'crypto practitioners.' The new identities include: traders (not much different from Wall Street folks sharing options trading screenshots on Reddit) or accelerationists (using cryptocurrency and many other tools to decentralize and open-source the world).

16. Don't think too narrowly anymore. The two boldest moves in history: 1) In June 2014, Musk open-sourced Tesla's electric vehicle engineering design; 2) In July 2023, Zuckerberg open-sourced Llama 2. Now it's your turn. You can choose to stick to protectionist, centralized, bureaucratic business models, but such models will hinder human progress, lead to unequal wealth distribution, and enrich the already wealthy elite, or you can choose to help everyone accelerate progress.

17. Seek volatility, not security. If your goal is to accumulate wealth as much as possible before machines replace humans, you must discover the volatility of trading. The best traders in the world do not shy away from volatility; they seek it out like chasing the Golden Snitch (the elusive object in Harry Potter's Quidditch matches). Once you discover volatility and start trading, you must reverse your emotional reactions. Hold when few sell, and sell when few buy.

18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoin. There are currently two types of Memecoins: 1) Traditional Memecoins (e.g., PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE); and 2) Perceptual Memecoins (e.g., GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). Category one relies on humans to spread; the other relies on machines. Traditional currencies must transform into conscious meme currencies, or they will exit the market entirely.

19. Understand the triggers that cause your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identified three triggers that algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hate, and greed. We see cryptocurrency as a technology that can change the world and 'the way of the future', but there are still many people wearing greed masks who will be influenced by these factors. I can feel the impact of market ups or downs on emotions. The bear market of the past few years has likely impacted my psyche more than I care to admit. Now, when I sense that the timeline or market has altered my emotions, I shrug and say, 'Well done, I know what you're doing, but I don't care at all.'

20. Choose the bright direction. For the upcoming superintelligence, there are two responses: 1) Just give up: 'Everything that made me unique has died. Life sucks, Wngmi (we failed).' Or 2) 'Holy shit, I can’t believe I’m alive to see this. Extending life, exploring forms, humanoid robots, the rat race traps will no longer affect us; we find the right direction, stare into the pond of life, and discover our true selves.'

21. Intelligence is iterative. LLMs have changed my concept of intelligence, but it is also important to realize that it is not deterministic; all LLM learning requires repeated experimentation. Progress is intermittent (whether you are human or machine), which means repeated testing/experimentation, and feeling like you are 'staying put' is also part of the growth process.

22. The rise of AI agents. Don't limit yourself to current AI agents; models including Truth Terminal, zerebro, and aixbt will continue to evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc., some of which will evolve into massive autonomous enterprises. Their value will first reach billions of dollars and, as the singularity approaches, tens of trillions of dollars.

23. Do not let AI strip away your humanity. My greatest fear about AI is not the extinction of humanity, but the taming of humanity. I call it dog-pawed: being subtly infused with toxic information; this is not a crude manipulation but a subtle guiding. Just as a domesticated dog can read human expressions, AI will accurately grasp our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly walking toward our 'digital masters', eyes sparkling with reverence, eagerly awaiting the next algorithmic affirmation. The real horror is not that AI will annihilate humanity, but that AI will tame humanity. Like our dogs, we happily wag our tails under domestication, forgetting our nature.

24. The allure of the margins. My five favorite emerging topics for 2024 are: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and longevity escape velocity (Odaily note: longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical concept referring to the speed at which technology can increase the average human lifespan each year. When this speed is fast enough, human lifespan can be extended indefinitely, even reaching theoretical immortality). I strongly recommend spending a few minutes exploring each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).

25. Excessive privilege. In the trading arena, the spoils belong to those who act earliest; early action requires time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you frequently act early, you will ultimately be rewarded. Assuming this is true (my experience supports this), the hard part is not accumulating wealth but knowing when you have reached your goal and exiting. On the other side, a completely different game awaits us—a game that is not about intellect but about the soul. Hope to see you there.

25 Predictions for 2025

1. Several LLM-based agents initially launched as crypto-native perceptual beings will be 'embedded' into IRL robots, allowing us to converse and interact with IRL.

2. The number of LLM-driven applications/protocols launched in 2025 will rival that of new applications/protocols using only smart contracts (for example, I wouldn't be surprised if all prediction markets switched to LLM-based settlement methods).

3. ZK proof/MPC will achieve breakthrough progress at the application or protocol level for the first time.

4. The major KOLs of crypto and AI will be LLM-based, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate almost all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).

5. Artificial intelligence will change your workflow in the next year (if it hasn't happened already).

6. Perceptual robots will accumulate over $250 million in investments by 2025.

7. The fastest-growing category of jobs this year will be non-human perception, as LinkedIn-like AI protocols experience parabolic growth.

8. A certain AI agent will win the Time Magazine Person of the Year award.

9. The value of on-chain TVL will reach 8 times to $1 trillion.

10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50 times to $500 billion.

11. The first case of humanoid robot 'kidnapping' will occur in 2025 and make international headlines.

12. ACCELERATE (Odaily note: accelerationism, derived from Roger Zelazny's novel 'Lord of Light', emphasizes the immense power inherent in emerging technologies and advocates for rapid advancements in science and technology. This article's accelerationism tends to reconstruct existing economic foundations to guide the direction of technological development) has become the e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the driving and transformative role of technological innovation in society) of this cycle, replacing the beloved EA (Effective Altruism: using a large portion of idle resources to help others and change the world) favored by SBF.

13. The narrative that will be able to compete with AI next year (but not surpass AI) is: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: DePin, DeSci, and gaming tracks received honorable mentions.

14. Web4 has garnered more attention than Web3 as crypto, decentralized networks, DePin, and AI accelerate their convergence.

15. X will integrate a crypto wallet that supports DOGE and other mainstream tokens.

16. The most radical and exciting agent experiments are progressing faster on decentralized social media (like Farcaster) as X struggles to balance between human and agent content.

17. You interact with 'someone' online, only to realize you are talking to an LLM.

18. Protocols and applications created by agents (like Spore.fun) are exhibiting parabolic trajectories, filled with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization drives capital into previously existing leaders and applications that benefit from the overall growth of agents (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).

19. At least one movie generated by AI has produced a truly perfect work of art—paving the way for the AI-based Oscars in 2026.

20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become top crypto data analysis platforms like CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Dune, and DefiLlama.

21. 'Conventional' Meme coins have launched real mascots/endorsers (or they may start to weaken slowly, but that becomes irrelevant).

22. The cryptocurrency market is divided into 'left-curve' crypto-native Degens and 'middle-curve' TradFi traders, the latter hoping for value accumulation in DeFi games.

23. With Bitcoin believers hoping to use their BTC as loan collateral, BTCFi will finally explode, driving the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin.

24. From now on, the competition between AGI and ASI will not slow down but accelerate, inevitably leading to almost every knowledge worker on Earth feeling survival anxiety. o3 now beats PhDs in specific areas; it can surpass most programmers. And it scored higher than average people in ARC tests. Just as the ancients held the heliocentric theory, we believe in anthropocentrism; changing these discourses in the face of LLMs must change. LLMs can already pass the Turing test and show momentum to lead the future.

25. As humanity struggles to find meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful, AI-based religion has not only garnered attention but also brought some true converts. This may have happened through: Truth Terminal and GOAT, or temporarily planting these ideas as seeds for new meanings and direction concepts.

23 tokens I am optimistic about.

I have been publicly publishing crypto articles for five years, and I can confidently say: 'One year is too long to predict, but here are the tokens I currently like the most.' Ask me three months later, and perhaps the list will be completely different. There is a reason these tokens occupy the market and have a high market cap: they are exploring the frontiers of the future. Note, this is not financial advice! DYOR!

1. BTC has long been a 'game for the common people.' Discussions about Bitcoin as a strategic reserve have changed its fate. It has transformed into a 'king's game.' The price of BTC will rise until owning 1 BTC becomes the dream of most people.

2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): The core infrastructure for AI agents on Base.

3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands returns better than any carbon-based life form on Earth, and as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, they will covet protocols that could generate greater returns.

4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), a decentralized social network version of Farcaster's pump.fun, is a fun token issuance platform.

5. aixbt (AIXBT), if I could only focus on one crypto alpha account on X, it might be AIXBT. Today, it mostly replicates others' narratives, but it doesn't miss anything, and I hope AIXBT's insights will deepen and evolve over time.

6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the rise of AI agents, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens; I believe this will attract crypto funds deployed in Q1 2025.

7. Helium (HNT), a top DePin project in the crypto industry. Recently, over 349,000 people used mobile services in the U.S.

8. Meta (META), a radical experiment that transforms tough decisions into markets through futarchy.

9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a cult following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, has a backstory that reads like a report written by Hunter S. Thompson on drugs.

10. Ondo Finance (ONDO), currently a representative project in the RWA field, surplus supply may suppress price movements, but I prefer to participate in trading rather than exit. Additionally, another noteworthy RWA token is Chex Token (CHEX).

11. ai16z and Eliza. The Eliza framework for launching on-chain agents is the leading repo on GitHub, covering all industries (not just cryptocurrency), and is digging deeper into the long-term relevance of every branch.

12. Bittensor (TAO) claims to be the first 'Neural Internet', providing a connected hub for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testing ground for the feasibility of AI concepts.

13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite Bitcoin ecosystem tokens, WZRD is about to transform into one of the greatest memes of all time. Meanwhile, PUPS is a Sheldon's point for the well-known NFT puppet monkeys of the BTC ecosystem.

14. Aave (AAVE), if we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most of those assets will qualify to be used as collateral on the Aave platform. AAVE is one of the few tokens in cryptocurrency that I believe will eventually reach a trillion-dollar scale.

15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer for Web 4, is quietly moving forward. Including most Solana NFTs, Arweave permanently stores about 6TB of data monthly, and its upcoming AO should be an important catalyst for further growth.

16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG 'on-chain AI artist', can generate music, art, memes, and NFTs.

17. Worldcoin (WLD). Founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, WLD aims to introduce the world to 'AI-funded UBI'. I hate it and its iris scanner on one hand, but on the other, I cannot ignore its connection to Altman and OpenAI; integration with OpenAI could make it one of the top currencies overnight.

18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana, has performed well in spot Memecoin trading; I expect it will start generating significant perps trading volume over time.

19. Griffain (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (arc), vying for the crown of 'Virtuals of Solana'.

Conclusion

We have been warned that 'this time is different' is a dangerous phrase, and only fools caught in speculative frenzy would believe it. However, we easily forget the moments of technological transformation—when Gutenberg's printing press spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, and when the internet destroyed local businesses.

In other words, the phrase 'this time is different' is somewhat correct. We are now on the brink of such a moment. The rules of society, traditions, and our self-perception will all be rewritten. This process is brutal and will have consequences.

You can stick to the inherent way, or you can become a pioneer of the transformative era, letting our light illuminate the abyss and accelerate forward.