#2025加密趋势预测 #加密市场调整

Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-27

I Focus on global financial data and events:

(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 89.3% (pay attention to risks in late January)

(2) Geopolitics: Stable (today's gold price is 2627.31U)

(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.79 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto. There is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January)

(4) After Trump won the election, at least three states are considering adopting a unique framework to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. (Pennsylvania/Texas/Ohio)

II. On-chain data and market sentiment:

(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (greedy range), Google search trend 31

(2) ETF dynamics: Net inflow resumed, BTC net inflow was 4,781 yesterday; ETH net inflow was 33,500;

(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U

(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0112% (normal)

(5) BTC market value accounts for 57.65%, and the copycat market has changed

(6) Today's main logic of volatility review:

1. Option pain point 85,000U, delivery completed, negative news landed and changed

2. ETF resumed net inflow, and institutions began to buy furiously. Sit tight and hold on!

(8) Today's trading philosophy: There is nothing outside the heart, everything that happens is beneficial to me. Either help me or save me!

Technique: Position management - 50% spot + 30% contract (5 times) + 20% reserve. After the contract is profitable, the spot cost will be reduced to 0 as quickly as possible

(9) New cycle, tentatively set the limit to January 20 to stop profit

Recent potential positives

1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)

2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas

3. Positive after option delivery

Recent potential negatives

1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)

2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)

3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)

The above content is for information sharing only,

does not constitute any investment advice!

Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!