Crypto Insider, Butchering the Ox 12-26
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) On January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 91.4% (pay attention to risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Palestinian officials: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are 90% complete. Israeli sources: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are not close to reaching an agreement. (Today's gold price is 2625.02U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.41 (the yen continues to depreciate, which is good for crypto)
(4) Russian Finance Minister: Russia is using Bitcoin for international trade
(5) On December 24, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special shareholders meeting to accelerate the 21/21 plan. The main proposals include: increasing the number of authorized Class A shares from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares to support future financing; increasing the number of authorized preferred shares from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares to expand financing options. (Stock split, make money and continue to reinvest in BTC)
II. On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 62 (greedy range)
(2) ETF dynamics: negative inflow for 3 consecutive days, BTC net outflow yesterday was 2,380; ETH net inflow was 39,900;
(3) Mining data analysis: 866.2.eh/s, handling fee 7.39 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 59691-92822U
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0048% (fund exchange rate fluctuates slightly within the normal range)
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.98%
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: option pain point 98000U, floating down 2.79%, wait for the opening of the US stock market to observe the trend
(8) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, and go with the flow!
Technique: When you are in a good mood, ask yourself before each transaction: "Is this a real opportunity or just noise?"
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (the Chapter 11 restructuring plan approved by the court will take effect on January 3, 2025, pay attention to the trend of FTT tokens)
2. Liquidity recovery after Christmas
3. MSTR continues to buy coins
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Large option fluctuations on December 27 (pain point 85,000U, nominal amount 14.209 billion U)
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investing is risky, be cautious when entering the market!