Bull, Bear, or Bull-Horse? How do you define Bulls and Bears?
Throwing a brick to attract jade: How do you view this round of rise? Bull, Bear, or Bull-Horse? If you think it's a Bull market, but fish, shrimp, and crabs decline significantly by 40-60%, do you still think it's a Bull?
(1) How do you define Bulls and Bears?
Some say that a rise of 100%-300% or more is a Bull, and a decline of 30% is a Bear? This creates a paradox, as often, within your defined Bull, there are also declines of over 30%, leading to situations where it’s hard to differentiate between a temporary Bull and a temporary Bear, leaving you confused in the end.
Others say that making money is a Bull, and losing money is a Bear? This is even more subjective; many people lose money precisely at the end of a Bull market.
Some say there are no Bulls and Bears, only Bull-Horses! Fish, shrimp, and crabs are Bull-Horses; we are Bull-Horses! Fish, shrimp, and crabs are destined to work for the Bull Demon King for life! We are destined to work for the Blockchain Continent for life.
(2) How do I define Bulls and Bears using quantitative methods?
The Wave Theory suggests: the upward waves 1, 3, 5, and b are Bulls; the corrective waves 2, 4, as well as a and c waves are Bears.
This classification is quite objective but is not accepted by most people. Because if classified this way, the sustainability of Bulls and Bears is weak, and situations often arise where 【a temporary Bull, a temporary Bear, hard to differentiate, leaving you confused in the end】.
The Bull and Bear cycles, in my opinion, can be categorized by duration into Short Bull, Short Bear, Medium Bull, Medium Bear, Long Bull, Long Bear, etc.:
Short Bull and Short Bear last from 10 days to 2 months.
Medium Bull and Medium Bear last from 3 months to 6 months.
Long Bull and Long Bear last for more than 7 months.
Based on years of experience, combined with the sustainability of Bulls and Bears, I believe Bulls and Bears should be defined as follows:
1 wave - 2 wave - 3 wave this time span is collectively called Bull (the body of the Bull).
4 wave is referred to as a Bear at a lower cycle level (during the 4 wave decline of the Bull Demon King or the concubine, the decline in fish, shrimp, and crabs can usually reach 40%-70%, which is a significant decline, hence it is not an exaggeration to call it a Bear).
5 wave is called Bull (end of the Bull).
The a wave, b wave, and c wave after the 5 wave and their variations are collectively referred to as Bear (a Bear larger than the 4 wave).