This Christmas did not turn into a Christmas disaster; the market welcomed a slight recovery in sentiment, which is actually thanks to the US stock market closing higher last night. Previously, Bitcoin's decline was also influenced by the US stock market; when US stocks fall, BTC tends to fluctuate the next morning or at midnight. However, if it closes higher before the 25th, it indicates that this Christmas will likely be safely passed. The subsequent market will gradually show expectations similar to those before Trump's presidency.
Looking at Ethereum again, its trend has been relatively stable. Today it briefly broke through the first resistance level of 3500. The recovery of Ethereum's upward momentum is not surprising, as the ETF inflow data for Ethereum is positive. Therefore, with the support of funds, there will be no panic. If you have been following the Crab Boss for a while, you should understand this logic, so we won't emphasize it here. In the upcoming January market, the narrative can be said to lean towards the bulls. Firstly, around the 6th of the month, the first batch of payouts from FTX is expected, amounting to about 16 billion USD. Objectively, most of this capital will flow back into Ethereum, including altcoins, since this payout is aimed at retail investors. The cost-effectiveness of laying low at this position is not high, so for those victims, obtaining these payout funds, Ethereum, including leading altcoins, will likely be their chosen targets.
After that, everyone knows that Trump will take office on January 20. With a series of economic stimuli, including whether Trump can fulfill his promises for cryptocurrency policies, and Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve for Americans, that is what we look forward to. Therefore, from the perspective of early layout, if recent opportunities arise, apart from the FTX concept, Trump's concept and Musk's concept will become the main theme in January.
When exactly will the altcoin season come?
To put it metaphorically, when a large market moves to the first wave, it will first welcome a small altcoin market, then make slight adjustments before welcoming the second wave of a large altcoin market!
Now, this round of market has lasted for three months, and BTC has adjusted at the key position of 100,000. At the same time, Bitcoin's market share has declined, oscillating for about four weeks. The adjustment time is now in place, which also provides a foundation for the explosion of altcoins. Don't rush into fully investing in altcoins; the arrival of altcoin season not only requires Bitcoin but also enough sentiment and capital overflow.
For a true altcoin season to arrive, Bitcoin needs to move up gradually, and Ethereum must maintain strong upward momentum. The combination of the two is the best driving force for sentiment and funds. You can recall that in November, the slightly strong performance of altcoins was experienced during the Bitcoin draining phase, coupled with Ethereum frequently breaking resistance levels and standing above 4000. Looking back, during Bitcoin's draining, Ethereum surged, and many altcoins completed 2-3 times the trend, with weaker ones also gaining over 50%. So without meeting these conditions, it is hard for altcoins to have a comprehensive explosion day.
Back to the topic, saying this is not to stifle everyone's confidence and expectations but to make everyone understand that while we look forward to the altcoin season, we must also guard against the risk of a downturn. Once Bitcoin and Ethereum start to correct, altcoins will also face adjustments. So at each stage, we should be prepared for that stage's market.
The altcoin season will not happen directly here, and the real expectations will be changed by the comments released after Trump takes office, along with the inflow of funds. Relying solely on the current funds, it is difficult for altcoins to meet everyone's expectations.
Since Trump's election, why has there been a bull market? Why has Ethereum risen? Why have altcoins risen? From various dimensions, I have analyzed everything that needs to be analyzed. You can look back at the Crab Boss's previous articles.
ETH cannot yet be considered a real surge; we need to wait for it to continuously increase volume for it to enter the surge phase. A true surge involves continuous volume increase, with both price and volume rising rapidly.
This round of cycles has seen a fierce struggle between retail investors and institutions. The vast majority of people won't wait for that 1% surge time, and among those who do wait, most do not know when to exit.
Once ETH starts to surge, the entire rhythm will be very fast. At the bottom, we need to overcome fear; at the top, we need to overcome greed. I will notify everyone immediately when it's time to exit. When it's time to run, do not drag your feet.
Where there is volatility, there are great opportunities. Next year's bull market will be much better than today, and the volatility will be even more intense. A washout is a necessary part of the process. In this market environment, without some patience and belief, it is very difficult to truly make money.
Additionally, recently Zen has been boosted by Grayscale. Let's take a look at what altcoins are related to Grayscale.
US concepts: XRP, SOL, SUI, LINK, LTC, UNI
Grayscale holdings: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, (ENA, DOGE)
Crab Boss's exclusive Binance chat room is here! Click the yellow text link below to join. There will be red envelope benefits in the future, including updates on wealth passwords and timely receipt of news!!!
Binance Crab Boss's chat room