According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January next year is as high as 91.4%. This strongly suggests that the Federal Reserve may not take significant monetary policy adjustments in the short term. From the market's perspective, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.6%. Although this ratio is low, it still reflects some discussion space in the market regarding the possibility of future rate cuts.
As the U.S. economy gradually enters a period of adjustment, the market's focus on Federal Reserve policy has shifted from interest rate hikes to whether it will adopt rate cuts to promote economic growth. Analysts generally believe that maintaining interest rates will help the Federal Reserve further observe economic data to decide whether to begin rate cuts. This relatively conservative policy stance aligns with the current slowdown in U.S. economic growth and the gradual decline in inflation.
As March next year approaches, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 52.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.2%, indicating that expectations for a rate cut are gradually strengthening. Notably, the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 3.7%, suggesting that while the market has some expectations for a rate cut, there is currently no significant likelihood of a large cut. Therefore, how the Federal Reserve balances inflation control with economic growth in the coming months will be the focus of the market.
Expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of Korea intensify
Against the backdrop of gradually easing global monetary policy, the Bank of Korea is also actively responding to economic pressures. According to reports from Yonhap News Agency, the Bank of Korea plans to continue lowering interest rates next year to address economic downturn risks. Considering the uncertainties in the global economy and the sluggish export market, this policy inclination reflects that South Korea's economy may face greater downward pressure.
For South Korea, the purpose of the rate cut policy is to stimulate economic growth, especially against the backdrop of slowing global trade, which has negatively impacted South Korea's economy due to reduced exports. Lowering interest rates helps reduce corporate financing costs and promotes domestic investment and consumption. However, rate cuts may also lead to currency depreciation, further increasing inflation pressure in South Korea, so careful evaluation is needed.
Bitcoin market's pullback severity decreases: Bull market operates healthily
In terms of the Bitcoin market, data from on-chain analysis company Glassnode shows that although Bitcoin's price typically experiences severe pullbacks during a bull market, the severity of recent market pullbacks has noticeably diminished. This indicates that the volatility of the Bitcoin market is gradually decreasing, and market sentiment is stabilizing.
Specific data shows that the depth of Bitcoin's pullback on August 5, 2024, was 32%, but most pullbacks were only 25%. This means that although Bitcoin's price fluctuates significantly, market volatility remains within a controllable range. This trend is closely related to the maturity of the Bitcoin market and the participation of institutional investors. As more institutional investors participate, market stability has improved. Notably, the introduction of spot ETFs has greatly increased market demand, further alleviating price fluctuations.
Additionally, the supply of short-term holders in the market (in terms of coin count) is mostly in an 'underwater' state, meaning many holders have a cost price lower than the current market price, which also reduces selling pressure. Overall, the healthy operation of the Bitcoin market and the gradual stabilization of price fluctuations provide a more stable market environment for long-term investors.
Singapore accelerates cryptocurrency license issuance
Singapore has accelerated its regulatory layout for the cryptocurrency industry in 2024. According to Bloomberg, Singapore issued 13 cryptocurrency licenses this year, doubling from last year. The licensed companies include well-known cryptocurrency platforms such as OKX, Upbit, Anchorage, and BitGo. This number highlights Singapore's rapid progress in cryptocurrency regulation and provides more legitimate and compliant operating environments for cryptocurrency companies.
Compared to Hong Kong, Singapore appears to be more relaxed and rapid in its cryptocurrency regulation. Hong Kong's cryptocurrency platform regulatory system is relatively strict, for example, it imposes more stringent requirements on customer asset custody and token listing and delisting policies. This may give Singapore more competitive advantages in attracting virtual asset companies.
The amount of Bitcoin left to be mined is less than 1.2 million coins, and supply pressure is gradually increasing.
According to CloverPool data, the current circulating supply of Bitcoin has reached 19,800,490.63 BTC, while the amount left to be mined is only 1,199,509.375 BTC. This means that the total supply of Bitcoin will soon reach its limit of 21 million coins, and the scarcity of supply will further intensify market demand. The current Bitcoin block reward is 3.125 coins, with an average daily output of about 450 BTC. As Bitcoin supply gradually nears exhaustion, the Bitcoin available in the market will become scarcer, potentially driving its price higher.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 15,700 coins yesterday, valued at $53.6 million.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 3,567 coins yesterday, valued at $338 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a 'medium bullish candle', marking the anticipated rebound from oversold conditions. However, from a daily perspective, the rebound volume is relatively small and has not formed effective amplification. Additionally, due to the U.S. stock market being closed, the supply-demand relationship cannot be fully verified, thus raising doubts about the sustainability of the current market rebound. Overall, the market is gradually shaking off previous sluggishness, and for those who have already entered, they can continue to hold positions and wait for the rebound to reach higher resistance levels before gradually taking profits.
ETH: Yesterday, Ethereum closed with a 'small bullish candle', currently above the 5-day moving average, but is currently under pressure from the 10-day moving average, and there may be further rebounds in the short term, so patience is required.
Altcoins: The recent market correlation performance of altcoins has shown signs of recovery, with indications of a revival in liquidity. However, overall sentiment remains low, and the profit effect for market participants is not significant. Overall, the current market trend exhibits more of a correlated movement rather than an independent market breakout. Although market activity is relatively low in the short term, I expect a strong recovery by January, which may bring more opportunities. Therefore, players should be patient and wait for the market to warm up further.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed) #“圣诞老人行情”再现