From the BTC weekly technical pattern perspective, a variant of the evening star has formed over the past three weeks, which is a typical bearish pattern, and the right side pillar is longer with a larger trading volume, indicating that selling pressure dominates the market.

Moreover, there are currently no positive factors in the market:

1. There have been no signs of improvement in market liquidity;

2. Bitcoin ETFs are continuously being sold off;

3. Buying activity in the US remains sluggish.

Therefore, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below 90,000 is quite high.

Regarding the timing, it is likely that the adjustment will be completed before January 6, possibly waiting until the beginning of next month, after the May average moves up, with support at the May line.

As for not being able to recover 90,000 within two weeks, which would lead to an unattractive monthly line, it is actually not scary as long as the drop in volume is not too large; a purely unattractive monthly line is not that concerning.