In light of the upcoming Christmas market, we need to reassess the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) and formulate corresponding trading strategies based on the current market environment. Yesterday's market trend was generally in line with expectations, especially in the execution of trading strategies. Although not perfect, it was relatively well grasped in terms of general direction and rhythm. My operations were also based on previously proposed strategies, which were: closing longs, shorting, closing shorts, and then going long again, with overall execution being very smooth.
As I emphasized before, Bitcoin's current trend is weak. Although a rebound may occur in the short term, the overall trend shows that it is difficult for prices to reach expected highs, while lows often drop deeper. Especially with recent price fluctuations, lows seem to exceed expectations more easily, so we need to remain flexible in our response.
Yesterday, although the Nasdaq's movement basically met expectations—opening high, slightly peaking before retreating, then testing the bottom and rising again, finally gradually reaching new highs and maintaining until the close—Bitcoin's performance was relatively weak, especially in the later stage of testing the bottom and rising, where its rebound time was noticeably lagging and its strength was far inferior to the Nasdaq. It is worth noting that other cryptocurrencies performed relatively well last night. Overall, while BTC and the Nasdaq trend in the same direction, there are significant differences in rhythm and intensity. The recent Nasdaq trend is crucial for BTC.
Although the Nasdaq's movement yesterday met expectations, there are still some potential hidden dangers. Firstly, the bottom-testing strength and amplitude of the Nasdaq are relatively weak; secondly, the closing point is already close to the pressure zone, with limited upward space, and it is expected to face a certain degree of technical pullback. These factors add uncertainty to tonight's trading.
Currently, BTC's trend is relatively weak. Since last Saturday, its daily highs and lows have been continuously declining. The only optimistic factor is that BTC has not yet broken below last Friday's low. However, tonight's market sentiment still needs to be closely monitored, especially the direction of the Nasdaq. If a strong rebound occurs, BTC's trend may also receive support; otherwise, it may continue to weaken.
Today's trading strategy is primarily focused on shorting, with some long positions.
Based on current market analysis, today's trading strategy should primarily focus on shorting, with some long positions at low levels.
Aggressive short positions can be considered around 95200, with ideal short points at 96400 and 97200. Considering market volatility, it is more prudent to short in batches. Set the stop-loss around 98000, with a target downside range of 93000-93500. During the operation, special attention needs to be paid to the movement of the Nasdaq. If it shows a strong rebound, the recovery strength of BTC may also increase, and the short positions need to be closed in time.
Long Strategy:
For investors looking to go long at lower levels, around 93100 can be seen as a relatively ideal entry point. The stop-loss should be set below last Friday's low, with target prices of 95000 and 96200 respectively. If tonight's market trend falls in line with the Nasdaq and shows a retreat, be cautious of a potential breakthrough of last Friday's low, leading to further declines.
In the current market environment, the trend of the Nasdaq and BTC is strongly correlated. If the Nasdaq fails to effectively support the market, BTC may accelerate its decline, so it is essential to maintain a flexible response strategy. If BTC's decline is significant, it may break the current low's support, further increasing risk.
Additionally, considering the early closing of U.S. stocks tonight (2 AM), market sentiment may fluctuate. Especially before the Christmas holiday, market trading volume and volatility may be larger, so investors should remain cautious.
The current BTC trend remains weak, and market sentiment is still driven by the Nasdaq's movement. It is recommended that investors adopt a flexible strategy, focus on risk management, prioritize short positions, and only execute long positions at low levels under appropriate risk control. As the Christmas holiday approaches, market uncertainty may further increase, and investors need to stay highly alert to sudden market fluctuations.
Wishing everyone smooth trading during and after Christmas, and a safe passage through every fluctuation.