The market is ever-changing, and an exciting and fulfilling day has arrived. Yesterday's range-bound market made many feel the brutality of the crypto world, bringing some thrilling moments. Regarding yesterday's trading strategy, I must first apologize to everyone. Short-term long positions were entered around 96000-96500, with a stop loss set at 95000, and ultimately the stop loss was hit, resulting in unavoidable losses. After all, I underestimated the intense volatility of the market, especially during the European stock market opening, where the low opening of the German index DAX directly drove down the NASDAQ futures, while BTC was also pressured to decline in a short period. Even though the high point near 98300 for BTC had been reached, the market's rapid decline and swift reaction made stop losses particularly important.
At that time, when I saw BTC around 96000 starting to show no signs of rebound, and directly broke below the low of 95600, I realized that the support level at 95000 was about to fail. After hovering around 95000 for a while, BTC eventually broke below, which was also my first calm acceptance of the strategy failure—however, trading failures are also valuable experiences that make us more cautious and precise in future decisions. Meanwhile, the short position in DAX was also approaching profit-taking, which created a subtle overall mood, but more importantly, excitement, because from experience, such failures accumulate more information for the next success.
Yesterday, I continued to adhere to the strategy of shorting at highs and buying at lows. At that time, the technical indicators for BTC showed that recent support levels were at 95600, 94000, and previous lows. Despite the market's volatility, I still believe BTC has a chance for a rebound, and although I don't know the exact bottom, I can layout based on the price range of the support levels, which keeps the risk relatively controllable.
My operations are divided into three attempts:
Go long near 96000, but quickly hit the stop loss;
Try to go long again near 94300, and the result was another stop loss down to 93800;
In a final attempt, I successfully caught the bottom near 92600. Although the initial buy order was set near 91000 based on BTC's trend, I decisively chose to enter again when confirming that DAX had reached an important support level with signs of a rebound. This time, the bottom was successfully confirmed, and BTC also welcomed a rebound.
The reasoning behind this operation is not only the trend of BTC itself but also the judgment of other markets (such as DAX and NASDAQ). As I mentioned in previous articles, the trend of BTC sometimes shows a correlation with other risk assets (such as stock indices, gold, oil, etc.). Especially during extreme emotional times, market correlation often becomes more apparent. Last night, ETH's bottom was about half an hour ahead of BTC, and ETH's rebound became a potential signal for BTC. As I said, details determine success or failure, and subtle changes in the market can often provide us with highly valuable reference information.
I sincerely apologize for not being able to remind everyone to catch the bottom in time. On one hand, I experienced two failures before finally succeeding, which caused some emotional fluctuations; on the other hand, the market conditions at that time made me focus my energy on operations in other varieties, lacking the time and energy to update the posts. Coupled with the issue of setting stop losses for BTC, I chose to pause posting and only shared my operational thoughts with nearby investors.
As for the rebound in the NASDAQ, although it seems to have recovered for now, the signs of a drop at the end of the trading day are concerning. Historically, the NASDAQ is likely to retest. This issue can be set aside for now and analyzed in depth in the coming days.
BTC Market:
From a larger trend perspective, BTC is still in a range-bound market. The current trading range can be referred to as 94000-107000. The trading strategy is:
Go long when the price approaches the lower edge of the range around 94000;
Short when the price approaches around 107000.
You can operate based on the oscillating trend within the range, capturing opportunities for small fluctuations. Especially near the current low, consider holding your position for a few days to wait for a market rebound.
For intraday small-scale operations, I recommend everyone continue to sell high and buy low, taking profits where you see fit. The market over the weekend may tend to stabilize, with small fluctuations suitable for flexible operations. If you don’t want to trade too frequently, taking a two-day break is also a good choice—after all, the crypto market is relentless, with pressures and opportunities coexisting.
Today's Operation Recommendation:
Buy: You can attempt to go long near 96800-97000, with a stop loss set at 96000 and a target towards around 98500;
Sell: You can consider shorting near 98900-99800, with a stop loss set at 100200, targeting back to 97000 and 96000.
However, it is important to note that the risk-reward ratio is not high; such operations are suitable for investors with certain experience. If you feel that the market is not very volatile, you may also choose to rest and wait for better opportunities.
Overall, after a round of high volatility, BTC may enter a phase of consolidation in the short term, and traders can operate flexibly based on the range.