Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the week just past, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping about 15% from its all-time high of $108,300, with prices briefly falling to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin's price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.
In recent days, the decline has severely affected altcoins, with many token prices even dropping to levels seen before October, erasing the "Trump effect" gains following Trump's election as President of the United States. Despite this, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe that the "Christmas crash" will further exacerbate market declines.
However, with 2025 approaching, a series of favorable factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan are building momentum, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new round of "dawn moments."
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize industry perspectives, institutional buying trends, and some on-chain activities in this article to provide readers with a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
Industry perspectives overview: Most are bullish, a few are bearish.
From the perspectives of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current pullback in BTC is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000, while altcoin holders are eager to sell, leading to market turbulence. As 2024 is about to end and 2025 is approaching, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines while Bitcoin continues to set new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines while Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines to report.
Cathy Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin has "become scarcer than gold," and she previously predicted that by 2030, BTC's price would exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and others.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and governments themselves potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added, "Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, insufficient supply, so I believe the price in 2025 will be higher."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a recent price target of $125,000.
After recently dropping below the $91,000 threshold, Bitcoin saw a strong rebound over the weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish outlook on BTC, stating that it may continue to rise in the future. Additionally, other on-chain metrics also indicate a positive future momentum for BTC. In recent analysis, Brandt stated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis.
However, he also referenced technical charts warning that BTC's price may pull back to $76,614 during the upward trend, adding that "this is not a prediction," pointing out the risks present in the market. He stated that this analysis only reflects "possibilities, not probabilities, not certainties." Additionally, his recently set price target for BTC is $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the "end of the bull market"; the market still has plenty of fuel.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzes based on historical data that the current crypto market pullback is not the "end of the bull market." He stated: "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the following 23 days (a 136% increase). A similar situation is happening now, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant rise in the fourth quarter before dropping 13%. It's not to say this is the bottom; we could see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have ample fuel."
Analysts: Bitcoin's recent pullback is highly correlated with sell-offs on Coinbase since October 26.
The recent drop in BTC prices marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly turned from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. As altcoins have been severely impacted, Bitcoin's pullback has raised concerns about the sustainability of recent gains.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity on Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC traded at $66,000). The increase in sell-off pressure clearly indicates a market transition from bullish to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased sell-off pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and maintain a mild pullback trend.
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downturn in 2025 will be short-lived, predicting the best-case scenario is that Bitcoin's price will double by June 2025, with a minimum price estimate of $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions.
Analysts say: "We believe that any correction in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflows." They noted that while Bitcoin is expected to experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025, the "broader trend" indicates that its price will continue to rise, aided by ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increasing global and institutional adoption.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for certain tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share had dropped by 6% (of which XRP contributed 3%), but has begun to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the scale of fund rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for certain well-performing tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot assets, and the market may enter a longer consolidation phase.
Noted trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio commented on the altcoin market, stating: "Altcoins (Alts) rapidly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or rapidly decline in a short time."
Analyst: Seeing significant pullbacks during a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical."
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new all-time high of over $108,000, and the recent downturn in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended 15 consecutive days of inflows, marking a record outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Strahinja Savic, Data and Analysis Director at FRNT Financial, stated that seeing such significant pullbacks during a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical," while QCP Capital noted in a report that the root cause of the sell-off is the market's "overly optimistic" positioning.
Strong buying: BTC ETFs continue to see inflows, with both the country and companies following suit.
From the market's fundamental buy-side perspective, it is still in the "sweet spot" for institutional trading, with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the holding cost does not significantly differ from the current BTC spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, governments, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoin, doubling from last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on the Bitcoin holdings pie chart, stating that ETFs, governments, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from last year's 14%.
BTC holdings pie chart information.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF's trading volume reached $26 billion in week 50, with inflows of $17.5 billion so far in Q4.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the net inflow for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in week 50 was $463 million, with a trading volume of $26 billion; additionally:
As of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT inflows total $1.452 billion;
Other ETF outflows total $989 million.
El Salvador intensifies BTC purchases, with a mid-term goal of increasing holdings by 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, El Salvador's senior Bitcoin advisor Max Keiser revealed: "President Bukele has intensified daily Bitcoin purchases, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC to reserves." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address increased holdings by about 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to receive a $1.4 billion credit line, but one of the conditions mentioned was to "reduce Bitcoin risks"; IMF spokesperson Kozak stated when asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador that Bitcoin usage would be voluntary.
In the latest news, the director of El Salvador's Bitcoin office, Stacy Herbert, clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will still be the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the "daily 1 BTC" purchase plan will continue.
Additionally, the country has made further purchases, increasing holdings by 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holds 272 BTC.
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with approximately $44.34 million in AUM.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase holdings.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are currently or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
Statistics show that at least 10 companies are currently or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
Artificial Intelligence Company Genius Group: Currently holds 294 BTC;
Pick-up solution provider Worksport: The company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: Shareholders propose that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: Currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: Currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: Currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: Currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: Currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: Currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: Currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, valued at approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased approximately $263 million in principal of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026, expecting to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth listed company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increases holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced another increase of 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase holding documentation
Glassnode: The extent of Bitcoin's pullback in the bull market trend has decreased, with most corrections around 25%.
Glassnode previously stated, "Interestingly, with the growth of the market, the extent of Bitcoin's pullback in the bull market trend has decreased. The deepest pullback in this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most corrections were around a 25% decline from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and increasing institutional interest."
Glassnode tends to see decreasing pullback severity.
On-chain activities: The number of wallet addresses is increasing, dormant addresses are waking up, and long-term holders are exiting.
On-chain activities show a polarized phenomenon: On one hand, over an extended time scale, the number of holding addresses for major cryptocurrencies has grown to varying degrees, starting at least 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that had been dormant for over 10 years are waking up, with many long-term holders gradually exiting.
In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has increased by 27% and 47% respectively.
Santiment stated that in the past two years, the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased. Here are the numbers of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analysts: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million Bitcoins.
By mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders had been selling large amounts of Bitcoin, with their total holdings dropping from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. The current trading price of Bitcoin is 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, the highest level since Trump won the U.S. election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, several addresses holding over $20 million worth of Bitcoin have been activated after years of dormancy.
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since surpassing $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at block height 875,560 on the Bitcoin network, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC came from 2015 when BTC's trading price was $290. Then, 43 blocks later, several wallets from 2017 began to activate, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet receives 99.999 BTC, worth approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet was activated after 12 years of dormancy, transferring 104.99 BTC, which was valued at only $11 at the time, totaling $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also moved from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges: Coinbase is losing more rapidly.
Coinglass data shows that the current balance of Coinbase Pro's Bitcoin wallet is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; it had inflows of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, outflows of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with inflows of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, inflows of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
