About BTC on the weekly timeframe and the capitalization of altcoins. And expectations for the market for the week.
The BTC price - is concerning due to the signal on the weekly timeframe (the local picture will be examined separately). Based on the closed weekly candle, there is an additional signal of a potential high after three such candles in the first half of November.
This signal indicates that the price is turning down or, at least, will spend some time in a range. The question of the duration of this range and its range - is open. For now, it seems that the lower part is a significant level of $91,306, which has already shown its importance many times in December. And in mid-November, on the 13th-18th, it was resistance. At least as long as the price is above the 50-day EMA - the scenario of such a range is clearly a priority.
If such an additional signal appeared (by the way, paired with a bearish engulfing on the weekly timeframe) at another stage of the market - we would write about the start of a strong correction.
Moreover, if such a combo of signals appeared after the basic targets were met according to the indicator somewhere in the summer or autumn of 2025 - we would generally write about the start of a bear market and the end of the bull run.
BUT now we will write about the range. Through which all this needs to be unloaded, restarting the upward structure on the weekly timeframe. Without new ATH in December and possibly even in the first half of January. The bull run signal from November 11, which we wrote about at a price of $80,757, has so far only stretched to meet the conservative growth target (on December 10 we wrote that this is $109,807, now the ATH is $108,353). Too weak for the final high of the cycle, and also in terms of timing - it’s early.
The price range of #BTC in the coming weeks does not quite align with the expectation of a reversal in dominance. The 'compromise' scenario, in which there will be no contradictions between the signals of the price charts and dominance - is if both the BTC price and its dominance head into a range in the coming weeks. In this case, the altcoin sector as a whole will also remain on pause with active (!) growth. Except for local rebounds.
Looking at the BTC chart and its dominance, our expectations for the week are as follows:
- In the first half of the week, there will still be a drop in BTC and a test of the 50-day EMA, possibly down to $91,306, a range or less significant decline in altcoins, and consequently a decrease in dominance.
- From the middle of the week or in its second half - growth of BTC and a faster rise of altcoins. Accordingly, a continuation of the decrease in dominance.
The more details in the forecast, the greater the risks that it won't work out. But for now, everything is shaping up to look like this.
This scenario, by the way, is accompanied by signals of a potential low on TOTAL2 and TOTAL3. Where since Thursday, let’s remind, there have been stable downtrends on the daily chart and this is somewhat concerning. But on Friday, the second basic target was almost met with a squeeze. If we can get through December 23-25 without dumps in altcoins - there are good chances for the return of altcoin capitalization to a stable uptrend on the daily chart without a decrease towards other targets by the indicator in the coming weeks.
