Tonight, the US stock market opens normally, and MSTR is officially included in the Nasdaq 100. Tomorrow night, on the 24th US Eastern Time, the US stock market will close early. The market sentiment before the closing is very important, as it directly affects the market sentiment during the Christmas period. Of course, there are also expectations for January next year, so there is not much concern. The trend is still there. Remember, even if BTC briefly declines during the holiday, it will recover.
As for altcoins, there has indeed been a significant pullback. To recover, it might have to wait until January next year, and the assets also need to be of good quality. I still want to tell my friends that investing is a 'literature question', not a 'math question'. You don't have to reach a certain position before exiting. How could that be? Right? You need to focus on the trend. The simplest way is to wait for another decent market movement and then continue heavily investing in several of these mining initial coin offerings. You need to understand that the trend is slowly reaching its peak and then declining. Those who have experienced it understand this well; words can only express so much. Also, the real good news is that BTC's surge breaking through in the US time zone is what truly matters.
Christmas is approaching, Christmas / Christmas Crash?
Some say 'there's always a crash during Christmas', while others say 'after Christmas there will be a surge'. Who is right? Just look at the historical data.
The performance of BTC and the Nasdaq index during the Christmas holiday from December 20 to January 6 in the last five years, as well as the rebound situation in the following month/two months;
Should I buy the dip or cut losses?
BTC Holiday Performance in the Last Five Years
During the period from December 20 to January 6, BTC experienced significant volatility, but the actual increase and decrease, except for the particularly severe fluctuations in 2020, were within 10% in other years.
In 80% of the years, the price performance of cryptocurrencies in the following two months has been quite good. If we narrow down the bottom-fishing time to the week after New Year's Day, the probability of making a profit is still 60%.
Nasdaq Index Performance in the Last Five Years:
To account for the impact of BTC ETF on the overall market, the overall situation of the US stock market has also been included. The range of fluctuations during the Christmas period is still considerable; however, the overall increase and decrease are not significant, so it is okay to ignore the volatility.
An interesting piece of data: if you buy the dip on the Friday before or after New Year's Day, you can basically expect decent gains in the following week. Therefore, it can be inferred that the US stock market will not have a significant negative impact on BTC after the holiday.
Although this round of the bull market is significantly affected by the inflow and outflow of BTC ETF, the Nasdaq index did not show a significant decline during and after the Christmas period, having little impact on the crypto space.
The rise and fall of BTC itself is contrary to the speculation about the 'Christmas Crash', so rest assured! The 'Christmas Crash' is not scary; 'short-term trading + chasing highs and cutting losses' is the real sin.
Spot Trading Strategy
Enter the market in batches and respond flexibly to market fluctuations.
For spot trading, it is recommended to gradually build positions starting from the current price. If $92,000 cannot be maintained, one can consider increasing their position appropriately, preparing to add further at $85,000 or even lower. There is significant uncertainty in the market, and investors need to maintain a flexible trading strategy. Do not think about hitting the bottom in one go or investing a large amount halfway up; the current price range is still a good area for buying.
Bottom-fishing Strategy: Select Strong Altcoins
During the current market adjustment, besides Bitcoin, some other altcoins have also seen significant declines. However, we need to choose some stronger coins, as leading coins have more advantages, and there are often multiple leaders in the same sector, such as DOGE and SHIB. The focus is on the sector. Timeless sectors include public chains and MEME coins, but there are also new hot sectors like AI, Depin, RWA, etc. The logic is the same; whether in the upcoming cycle, projects can join the ranks of impressive, mainstream altcoins is something to keep an eye on.
Several promising assets worth considering include: UNI, APT, AAVE, ONDO, MKR, PEPE, hbar, pnut.
Therefore, investors can consider entering the market in batches after certain declines in these cryptocurrencies to achieve a better cost-performance ratio.