Current Market Summary:
1. Technical Analysis:
1) A single bearish candlestick has significant volume; sellers are the dominant force, while buyers are in a state of surrender!
2) Two or three candlesticks primarily show patterns like dark cloud cover and evening star, indicating short positions at highs!
3) The formations are primarily descending triangles and flag structures, creating the current 4-hour winter downtrend!
4) Today's greed index remains at 73, with 60% of long contracts held by bullish cryptocurrencies; the major players want to fully liquidate the bulls!
5) The current market bottom is continuously being adjusted downwards, and the top is also being adjusted downwards; overall, it is trending downwards, again probing the previous bottom.
2. News Analysis:
1. Global conflicts between Russia and NATO, along with negative news from the Middle East, are continuously affecting the instability of the entire financial market, leading to frequent occurrences of gray rhinos and black swans.
2. The sale of 1,800 bitcoins in Mentougou yesterday has left the market with lingering panic.
3. Trump's presidency has led to increased tariffs on various countries, including China, resulting in slow economic circulation. The liquidity in the market is insufficient, causing funds entering the cryptocurrency space to be sluggish.
4. Powell's hawkish speech on finance and bitcoin on the 19th will impact the financial market; it will take 1 to 2 months to digest. We must patiently wait for a second bottom test or a breach of previous lows.
5. The ETF funds backed by Wall Street consortiums are gradually exiting, leading to poor fund flow; further declines cannot be ruled out, so proper position management and stop-loss and take-profit strategies are especially important!
