The night before yesterday, he probably drank a little bit of wine, and then he called me and said that he was under a lot of pressure. He felt very puzzled, as if he would be criticized if he opened a short position at any position, so he was under a lot of pressure. Finally, Jiuge hoped that I could stand up and support him, especially at this time.

As you all know, Jiuge is a very good friend of mine. In fact, as early as June or July this year, Jiuge, I and several other KOLs had planned to form a community together, but it was never implemented due to various reasons. Now Jiuge is under a lot of pressure, so I am naturally willing to stand up and say a few words on his behalf.

It's just that I should have posted a post that night, but I didn't think about how to write it at the time, because I felt that I couldn't just post a sentence like "Jiuge, I support you, don't criticize Jiuge, criticize me if you want to criticize." I always wanted to say more. On the other hand, I also had some concerns, because I felt that based on the recent trend in the comment section, standing up to support Jiuge might backfire.

Actually, to be honest, when $BTC was at more than 50,000 or 60,000, how many of us KOLs were bearish? Without exception, we all expected a breakthrough of 73,800, the small high point in the first half of the year. On the contrary, the mainstream voice of retail investors in the market at that time was "there are lower prices" and "going long is like being a dog". But if you look at the top post on my homepage, it should be something I wrote in early September. I wrote about the violent bull market in October, the profit-taking in mid-November, and the layout of long-term short orders in mid-December. Think about it as the head of the air force. Am I optimistic about the market in the second half of this year? Of course, the time rhythm is biased, but if you want to criticize the idea of ​​shorting, why didn't you criticize it in September? I started to warn of risks and actively shorted in mid-to-late November, and I have been scolded for a month. Then I am also very curious, if you started to go long in mid-to-late November, did you survive the several waves of plunges in the middle?

I still remember a person named "Jeffrey". I went long at 55555 in early September, then went short at around 60000 and went long at 53800, laying out a medium-term long position. At that time, someone in the comment area asked where the long position could be seen in the long term? I said that the long-term view would be at least 73800 within the year. Then Jeffrey got a little angry, first scolded me, and then said how could 73800 be broken?

I didn't manage my emotions very well at the time, so I deleted his comment. Then he got even more excited, took a screenshot and said I deleted his comment, saying I didn't dare to admit what I said. I went directly to his homepage and confronted him, saying, "Do you dare to bet with me? It will break 73,800 within this year, don't be scared." The price at that time was only more than 50,000, and I dared to make this bet with others.

What's funny is that during this process, I found out that he used to be a fan of @金余给给 , but later he turned from a fan to a hater and criticized me for my poor skills. I mocked him and said how much money Jinyu made and how much money you made, how dare you say Jinyu's skills are not good.

Actually, to put it bluntly, it is normal for bloggers to be criticized, and I am more or less relieved now. I blocked a few people before, but I basically haven't blocked anyone in the past few days. It's just that this bull market is really strange, because if my memory is not wrong, in the last bull market (when I was still very keen on browsing, joining various group chats, and watching a lot of videos), there was no such situation of being criticized as soon as I shorted. Even after the big surge in October 21, selling spot and shorting in November was still the mainstream. I have to say that the level of retail investors in 21 is far ahead of that of retail investors in 24. Several of us kols started as retail investors in the last bull market.

Some people say, "weld the car door shut, get 150,000-200,000 in 25 years, get 8,000 ether, and wait for the big bull market." If a person really has faith, first of all, when the price drops to around 49,000, did you make a long position in the currency standard? Many people started to lay out long positions with a trend at more than 90,000, saying that they want to see 150,000-200,000.

Is it really reasonable to arrange long-term long positions at historical highs?

And anyway, I think it is unnecessary to criticize bloggers. To be honest, do I have the same ideas as Jiuge? I have many friends in the square, including Jinyu, @诗魂 , and some other friends. Sometimes our ideas are inconsistent. But this does not prevent us from being friends. We will also learn from each other's ideas and opinions and think about each other's thinking patterns. Only in this way can we truly grow.

For example, when I was strongly bearish before, what was my basis?

1. The Nasdaq peaked at around 20,000, and the Nikkei peaked at around 40,000. The reason is that the Nasdaq always shows signs of running away near key integer positions, and it is struggling. And recently it is at the upper edge of the upward channel, which puts a lot of pressure on it.

2. $SOL After the FTX incident in 2022, the dealer changed, and now it is equivalent to Wall Street controlling SOL. If SOL fails to break a new high and instead keeps weakening, then even if BCH keeps getting stronger, I will not recognize the continuation of the bull market.

3. As shown in the figure, the situation shown by USDT.D is very similar to the situation at the end of 21. So the conclusion is that the current market depth is extremely poor and liquidity is seriously insufficient.

So, are these signals of reference value to you? Can you gain some insights and become better through these signals? Which of the signals I provided have reference value, which do not, and which are even counter-indicators. It is reasonable to step on the shoulders of us KOLs and make yourself stronger, isn't it?

Including what I have been saying in August and September, I said that the bull market will peak at the end of this year. Why? Because the positive U.S. bond yields and the triggering of the Sam rule are the signals of the start of the economic crisis. So old fans should know very well that I have been saying in the summer that I am afraid that time will not be enough, and I must catch the peak as soon as possible, and there will be big financial risks next year. These signals often take several months to verify. Once verified, will it be helpful to you?

For example, if it is going to fall/rise, how will it fall/rise? How will the main force hunt short/long stop losses to obtain liquidity and complete phased shipments? Correspondingly, what should I pay attention to when making orders? How to manage positions? Which is more suitable for me, the band or the trend? I think it is more valuable to spend time on these issues.

Finally, let's look back at all those who saw the 25-year bull market in November and December. If you believe in the cycle theory, then your cycle is three and a half years or four years. If it is three and a half years, shouldn't you start counting from April 21? Because from the end of 2017 to April 21 is only three and a half years. If your cycle is four years, then shouldn't you see it until the end of 25? This is the cycle theory.

From the perspective of Chaos Theory, from 73800-24500, the second weekly level increase in this round of bull market has increased by 3 times. If you look at the big bull market until March/April next year, then from 49000*3, this round of bull market will not exceed 147000, otherwise the third weekly level increase will not form a divergence, and there will be another weekly level increase in the second half of next year. And this is already the most optimistic situation.

For example, Jiuge and I have different opinions on this aspect. Jiuge believes that the current daily level will break through 90,000, and there will be a big bull market in the first quarter of next year. But I think the current daily level will fluctuate and fall to the end of January, and the beginning of 7 can be seen. As for the last daily level, from early February to mid-April, due to the impact of the macro economy, it can only go to between 90,000 and 100,000.

So can you find some common ground between Jiuge and I, whose seemingly opposite ideas?

For example, he and I are both optimistic about the market in the first quarter of next year, but we have different judgments on the high point. At the same time, he and I both believe that the current decline has not yet ended, but we have different judgments on the low point. So, is this kind of resonant signal helpful to you? This is also what I repeatedly mentioned in July and August, the kol signal resonance.

For me, speaking from a medium level, the previous daily level up, from 52500-108000, the increase reached 55500 points, which took more than 3 months. At this time, the amplitude of the downward movement of the daily level is very considerable.

If there is a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, the final position is 80250. If there is a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the final position is 73700. How about it, does 73700 look familiar? Is it the small high point in the first half of this year? Of course you can say it is impossible, but I am just sharing my point of view, you can use me as a counter-pointer. Then you go long at the current price, I look down 20000 points, then you look up 20000 points, isn't it reasonable? There is no need to criticize people, right?

Finally, if you criticize Jiuge, he might block you. But I don’t have the habit of blocking people anymore, so if you want to criticize someone, don’t criticize him, just criticize me.