The more chaotic the market, the more you need to stay calm. Here are some personal thoughts on the market conditions during this period:
1. Has the bull market ended?
The most important reason for the rise since November 6 is the favorable policy expectations for cryptocurrencies brought by Trump's victory. The continuation of the upward trend next year mainly depends on the more favorable policies towards cryptocurrencies after Trump takes office, including a more relaxed regulatory framework, BTC strategic reserves, and so on. This main storyline has not changed, so the bull market is likely to continue. However, it is also important to note the degree to which favorable expectations for cryptocurrencies are fulfilled after Trump takes office, as this could lead to the end of the bull market.
2. Why has BTC fallen in the past couple of days?
The direct reason is that the Federal Reserve's statement last night was more hawkish than the market expected. However, at this level, the market had already anticipated a reduction in interest rate cuts by 2025, and this time the dot plot prediction was only one time less than the market expectation. Logically, this should not lead to such a severe pullback. If it has happened, it can only be said that the market's excessive panic combined with the liquidation of positions by some large holders has caused a chain reaction. However, past experiences have shown that panic-induced declines tend to recover.
3. What’s happening with altcoins? Will there be an altcoin season later?
Altcoins have been the hardest hit in recent days. When Bitcoin rose a couple of days ago, altcoins did not rise and even fell. However, looking back at the rise in early November, Bitcoin initially rose alone, draining the market, and the market was in despair. But once Bitcoin broke through key levels, capital overflowed, and altcoins began to perform. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend, there will definitely be an altcoin season. Profit-taking capital will always overflow; this is human nature and the essence of any financial market. Even in strong markets like the U.S. stock market, we see that when the Nasdaq rises significantly, the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks also rise.
4. When will the altcoin season come?
When Bitcoin breaks through key price levels, rests, and consolidates, altcoins will explode. As it stands, it is highly likely that this is a key point. Previously it was 100,000, and subsequently it should be 110,000, 120,000, 130,000, etc. If it is expected that this bull market will peak at 150,000, then altcoins will have four more explosive opportunities, but the risks will increase as we move further into the later stages. Altcoins should still focus on strong sector leaders; based on previous gains, meme coins, public chains, DeFi, RWA, etc., are relatively strong sectors.
The above is just personal reflection, DYOR
