I. Technical Analysis
By observing the charts, the following points can be summarized:
Short-term K-line trend (1-hour chart)
Yesterday, BTC experienced a continuous pullback from a high position, forming a clear bearish trend with a one-sided decline.
The moving averages (MA10, MA30) show a bearish arrangement, with the price operating near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating no effective rebound, which suggests that the market is still in a weak state.
The Bollinger Band channel is widening downward, suggesting that the price may continue to seek a bottom in the short term.
Medium-term K-line trend (4-hour chart)
BTC sharply pulled back after encountering resistance around 108,000, currently approaching support at 99,000.
Technical indicators show a bearish dominance, with MA10 swiftly crossing below MA30, further strengthening the downward signal.
If the key support level below cannot be maintained, there may be a test of lower areas in the short term.
II. Key Level Forecast
Based on the above analysis, the following strategies are set:
First take-profit level: 99,500 (close to the current support level, testing the effectiveness of the rebound)
Second take-profit level: 98,700 (if it breaks below 99,000, continue observing downward targets)
Stop-loss level: 100,500 (ensure risk control to avoid losses from ineffective rebounds)
III. Operational Suggestions
Combining market sentiment with technical signals, today suggests the following two operational ideas:
Bearish direction
Entry position: place short orders between 99,300 and 99,500.
Target price: take profit in the range of 98,700-98,300, reducing positions in batches.
Stop-loss setting: 100,500 (to prevent unexpected rises that break key resistance levels).
Short-term rebound speculation
Entry position: if the price effectively stabilizes below 99,000, consider testing long positions with light holdings at 98,700.
Target price: 99,800-100,000 (flexibly take profit based on the market's rebound strength).
Stop-loss setting: 98,300 (to avoid risks of a steep drop).
Currently, BTC's overall trend is weak, with heavy selling pressure in the market. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach during the day, while bulls should cautiously attempt rebounds. Near key support levels, closely monitor changes in market sentiment and trading volume. Manage positions reasonably and avoid counter-trend operations.
Finally, the 99,000 level is the key battleground today; a breakthrough or stabilization will determine the short-term direction, so be cautious in positioning.
