【CITIC Securities Comments on the Federal Reserve's Decision: More Hawkish than 'Hawkish Rate Cuts'】 Jin Shi Data, December 19 - CITIC Securities stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps at the December 2024 meeting, aligning with market expectations. The dot plot indicates a target interest rate central of 3.9% for next year, higher than the 3.4% shown in the September 2024 meeting, while also raising next year's inflation and economic growth forecasts, and lowering the unemployment rate forecast. Powell's remarks did not provide clear guidance on the 'magnitude and timing' of future rate cuts, but he expressed strong confidence in economic growth. From the SEP and Powell's speech, the Federal Reserve has significant concerns about inflation next year; this monetary policy meeting is much more hawkish than the market generally expected, but aligns with our view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 2025. We maintain this view and expect that the Federal Reserve will most likely pause rate cuts at the next monetary policy meeting to observe, or may need to wait until the March meeting to provide clearer guidance. Market volatility in U.S. stocks is expected to increase. (Source: Jin Shi Data)