Market Analysis – BTC hits highs and altcoins continue to attract blood. How did the market perform during Christmas in the past? 
This week, BTC hit a new all-time high again, reaching a peak of over $108,000. However, it then began the most significant correction in the past week. So far, it has fallen about 4.3% from the high. The altcoin market is even worse. Not only has BTC risen It did not follow the rise when it rose, but followed the fall when it fell. The performance in the past week was indeed very weak. The new coins listed on Binance are also in a state of flux. As soon as the coins are listed, the valuation is astronomical, and then the market makers start to cut off the leeks. The market opens at a high point. Among them, VANA has dropped nearly 50% from the high point in a few days. This may As a result, the market lost confidence in Binance’s subsequent new coins.
The recent performance of the altcoin market has not been ideal. Many currencies have fallen to the position of the 12/11 crash. This trend can also be clearly felt by the continued rise of BTC Dominance. However, yesterday's correction after BTC hit a high Let BTC Dominance begin to show signs of reversal from highs, and perhaps the altcoin market will have a chance to usher in a rebound after Christmas. At this stage, the altcoin market has reached a relatively low point, and ETH, that is, SOL, has not fallen too much, and its performance is relatively strong. Those who have not filled up their positions on 12/11 can consider taking some low positions again and make a small bet. If the copycat rebounds, the stop loss can be set at 5%.
The trend of BTC is relatively simple, and the overall trend is still in a large upward channel. When it hit the upper edge yesterday, the two investment groups also partially reduced their BTC positions, which can be regarded as avoiding some falling losses. It is not very good at this stage. Trading opportunities: BTC continues to be bullish while the fundamentals remain unchanged.
Last FOMC meeting of 2024
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its last interest rate decision in 2024 in the early morning of the 19th. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a one-point rate cut is over 95%. This will be the third rate cut this year, with the cumulative reduction reaching 1 percentage point. Previously, the FOMC had cut interest rates by two points and one point respectively in September and November.
Recent economic data shows that the unemployment rate is lower than expected and inflationary pressures persist. These factors may affect the FOMC's decision-making. Although some economists question the necessity of another interest rate cut, the FOMC may still choose to cut interest rates in order to comply with market expectations. Bob Schwartz, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said that despite changes in economic conditions, the FOMC is likely to follow its communicated plan for rate cuts to avoid upsetting market expectations.
What is more important for this meeting is the Fed's plan for 2025. Many analysts believe that Chairman Powell may hint at the press conference that the FOMC plans to slow down the rate of interest rate cuts in 2025. Overall, the market currently expects two to four interest rate cuts in the United States in 2025.
Will "Christmas" be a big hit?
The annual Christmas is coming soon, and I believe many people are curious. Will Western countries want to cash in before the holidays? Or will you take advantage of the holidays to speculate in currencies at home to push up prices?
According to historical data, in the "Christmas Week" in the past 6 years, there have been 4 closings and 2 closings. The highest increase occurred in 2020, with an increase of 12%.
So, has altcoins or Bitcoin performed better in these 6 years? According to data from the Bitcoin historical market share chart, Bitcoin’s market share has closed down four times in the past six years, which means that the possibility of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during the Christmas week is relatively high.
However, overall, the impact of Christmas on the cryptocurrency market is not significant. In comparison, the impact of the Lunar New Year is more obvious. According to historical data, Bitcoin closed at an average of 10.79% during the Lunar New Year in the past six years, significantly higher than the Christmas average of 3.4%. From this point of view, the "Lunar New Year Quote" seems to be more worth looking forward to than the "Christmas Quote".
Binance Copying Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
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Copy link GTRadar – Potential public chain OKX
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days were -3.97%, -2.26% and -11.63% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days were + 33.24%, +15.95% and -0.11%.
Currently, "GTRadar – BULL" holds 50% of the net long positions, mainly in BTC and ETH.
Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds about 15% of its net long positions, mainly AAVE and ETH.
Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds about 20% of its net long positions, mainly ETH.
The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Hot news
CPI in line with expectations boosts confidence in interest rate cut
The United States announced the November CPI (Consumer Price Index) on December 11, with an annual increase of 2.7%, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.6%, in line with market expectations. This data provides solid support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in December. the basis of. Goldman Sachs analyst Whitney Watson said: "Today's CPI data clears the way for an interest rate cut next week. After today's data is released, the Federal Reserve will enter a silent period. They are still confident in the anti-inflation process. We believe that in In the new year, the Federal Reserve will further gradually ease monetary policy."
Stablecoin market capitalization reaches $200 billion milestone
The total stablecoin market capitalization surpassed the $200 billion mark for the first time on Wednesday as demand for stablecoins increases and adoption expands. The stablecoin has grown another $10 billion in market capitalization in just two weeks since surpassing the $190 billion record set during the 2022 bull cycle last month, according to CCData and DefiLlama.
BlackRock: Bitcoin accounts for 1~2% of the investment portfolio as a reasonable allocation
According to Bloomberg, asset management giant BlackRock pointed out in its latest report (Bitcoin’s positioning in investment portfolios) that for investors who want to hold Bitcoin risk exposure, allocate 1 to 2% of the investment portfolio. is a reasonable range. In addition, when asked whether other cryptocurrency ETFs would be launched, executive Jay Jacobs said: "We have really just touched the tip of the iceberg with Bitcoin, especially Ethereum. Currently, only a very small number of customers hold IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) and ETHA (Ethereum ETF), that’s where our focus is (versus launching a new altcoin ETF).”
Australian pension fund AMP reveals it bought $27 million in Bitcoin in May
According to a report by (Financial Review), AMP, an Australian pension fund, invested approximately US$27 million in Bitcoin (BTC) in May 2024, becoming the first large Australian pension fund to embrace digital assets. The fund has approximately $57 billion in total assets under management, and its allocation to Bitcoin is relatively conservative at just 0.05% of total assets.
Polygon community proposes leveraging 1.3 billion in idle magnesium funds to generate an additional 70 million in annual magnesium revenue
The Polygon community is discussing a proposal to generate additional revenue by leveraging the over $1 billion in funding from the PoS Chain bridge, the official cross-chain bridge connecting the Polygon network to Ethereum. However, after the proposal was released, it triggered strong opposition from Aave and the user community.
U.S. Bitcoin Accounting Standards Officially Effective
The new standard allows companies such as MicroStrategy to use fair value measurement methods to more accurately reflect the actual value of Bitcoin assets in financial reports, a move that reduces the accounting burden and potential risks of holding Bitcoin. Therefore, when company management considers buying Bitcoin, it may be easier to convince shareholders and investors to accept this option, thereby increasing institutional demand.
The father of internet celebrity Squirrel issues a “stop infringement” warning to Binance
Mark Longo, the owner of the well-known internet celebrity squirrel Peanut, tweeted today on Includes pictures and story content of Peanut the squirrel. However, this may not be good news for investors in the meme coin PNUT, as the legal action taken by Mark Longo may force Binance to consider delisting PNUT to avoid unnecessary litigation issues.
NFT platform OpenSea is rumored to have registered a foundation, triggering speculation about token issuance and airdrops
Waleswoosh, an anonymous researcher at the NFT project Azuki, shared a screenshot showing the NFT platform OpenSea registering a foundation in the Cayman Islands on December 14. This sparked discussion among some in the NFT community, who speculated that the platform may be planning to issue own tokens and conduct token airdrops.
The effective date of FTX’s restructuring plan is confirmed!
Bankrupt exchange FTX and its associated debtors issued a press release today announcing that its court-approved Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025. This date is also set as the record date for the first distribution to holders of Convenience Classes debt in the reorganization plan. The first distribution is expected to take place within 60 days of the effective date, subject to participants meeting claim requirements such as identity verification (KYC) and submission of tax forms. The first distribution is limited to the simple category of creditors in the reorganization plan, that is, creditors whose claims are less than $50,000. Recording and payment dates for other claim categories will be announced in due course.
Bitcoin hits $107,000, listed companies continue to buy without fear of highs
Bitcoin continued its gains at 2 a.m. today, breaking through $107,000, setting another all-time high. At the same time, MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms and Semler Scientific all announced at this time that they would increase their positions in Bitcoin.
Ethena launches stablecoin USDtb backed by BlackRock’s BUIDL token
The Ethereum stablecoin protocol Ethena announced on Monday the launch of its new stablecoin USDtb, which is supported by the tokenized money market fund "BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund" (BUIDL) launched by BlackRock and Securitize. USDe, the protocol’s flagship token, is designed to help stabilize the protocol when cryptocurrency markets weaken.
Bitfinex report: Bitcoin is in the middle of a bull market and is expected to peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year
Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2025. They pointed out based on multiple indicators that the market has not yet reached a top, and expect Bitcoin to peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with a price high It could fall between $145,000 and $189,000.
Fat Penguin token “PENGU” airdrop officially launched
On the evening of the 17th, the native token PENGU of the NFT project Pudgy Penguin was launched, becoming the hottest event in the cryptocurrency market. Since the PENGU token airdrop is not limited to Pudgy ecological NFT holders, even addresses that have used the Phantom wallet to redeem coins before 2024 can also receive token airdrops. A large number of users poured into the PENGU airdrop application website and even caused the web page to be disconnected for a time. Wire.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
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