At 3 AM on the 19th, I believe everyone will be paying attention to the news about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. However, the market has already firmly pinned down a 25 basis point rate cut, so the market will likely follow the script to cut rates. The risks during the meeting still revolve around the dot plot and Powell's speech sentiment.
If Powell mentions slowing interest rate cuts during the meeting, the market will respond with a certain decline, so we still need to see what old Powell has to say.
Currently, the adjustments in the market are due to risk-averse sentiment and do not indicate a true bearish trend. The main trend is still bullish, especially since BTC and ETH’s ETFs have maintained net inflows. As mentioned in yesterday's article by Mr. Crab, many listed companies and institutions are willing to raise their costs to buy BTC, which proves that 100k is just a starting point for them.
The recent pullback in altcoins can be observed from last night to this morning, generally around 10%. In severe cases, it can be 20-30%. Currently, altcoins still lack significant liquidity support. Bitcoin can continuously reach new highs due to the inflow of institutional and publicly listed companies' funds, so Bitcoin has already entered a regular mode, while altcoins are still waiting for market-backed news. I personally think this will happen next year, for example, if SOL launches an ETF, it could create an effect for altcoins.
In fact, altcoins do want to rise, but the current timing is just not the outbreak period for altcoins. This wave is similar to the situation last month when Bitcoin broke 90k and reached new highs every day. Only when Bitcoin breaks through the market cap ceiling will altcoins collectively take off. After Bitcoin hit 100k last month, many altcoins broke their previous highs from March this year, and this wave is the same. Although Bitcoin has been hitting new highs these past two days, have you noticed that these new highs are not at round numbers, and they can't even make it to trending searches? The upcoming market can only stimulate retail and altcoin funds' enthusiasm by breaking through significant levels like 110k and 120k, so I suggest friends holding altcoins be patient. As long as your altcoins have a narrative, the project team is still operating, and the direction aligns with market hotspots, then there’s no problem.
New projects are emerging, and the market's blood-sucking effect is significant.
Recently, major exchanges have frequently introduced new VC tokens, leading to a massive outflow of market funds. The trends of new tokens are often fierce yet short-lived. Project teams attract investors through airdrops and other means, like MOVE, ME, ACX, etc., but after buying, investors often face the risk of being stuck. Therefore, it is recommended to treat these new tokens with caution to avoid blindly following trends. The current market first eliminates bullish positions through severe volatility, then lifts to explode bearish positions, subsequently entering a long period of consolidation. This may be the process of market washing, aimed at clearing floating capital and high-leverage bullish forces to build momentum for future rises.
The oversupply and random issuance of altcoins, along with the locked positions during the general rise, and the wealth effect on-chain have already drained the liquidity from the entire market!
Recently, even new coins launched have shown little profit effect, dropping directly after the opening, indicating that market funds have already dried up. If Bitcoin pulls back, it means that funds from the entire market will be drawn away, and liquidity will completely vanish. Simply put, when Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall; when Bitcoin falls, altcoins remain in this stagnant state.
For small coins to break through, there must be funds entering from outside the market, or funds previously trapped in large-cap coins like DOGE, XRP, and ETH need to come back out. As long as these large coins do not rise, altcoins will struggle to gain traction. If BTC pulls back in the future, ETH may be relatively strong. A few days ago, ETH just broke its new high for this year, and it is still less than 20% away from its historical high. If Bitcoin stabilizes in the next phase, it may welcome Ethereum's performance.
Currently, other altcoins, including SOL, are in a trend of being drained by Bitcoin. SOL can be said to be a barometer for ordinary altcoins, while other altcoins often suffer more severe declines than SOL.
Of course, a few projects have defied the trend, like FTT, which started speculation half a month early since the FTX bankruptcy restructuring plan will come into effect in January 2025.
The overall trend of platform coins is strong, with GT and BGB reaching new highs, and the increase over the past 7 days is over 50%. Even BNB has hardly dropped, and the DEFI sector has also performed well, possibly driven by strong performance from HYPE, with AAVE, ENA, and USUSL all showing increases of over 10%.
RWA, AI, and DEPIN continue to maintain a strong performance, especially with AI AGENT leading the way, allowing VIRTUAL FDV to break through 3 billion, and the market cap of fartcoin exceeds that of ai16z and goat, with the entire sector continuously generating new 'golden dogs.'
Buy at a price that gives you peace of mind and maintain sufficient faith to avoid being influenced by short-term market fluctuations. If you can't even enjoy your meals because of buying coins, then there must be problems in various aspects of your investment. This itself reverses the essence of investing; investing is about befriending time and making life happier, not more haggard.